Flames vs. Kings Odds, Pick & Preview: Can Calgary Get Back on Track?

Flames vs. Kings Odds

The Flames have been one of the NHL's most consistent teams this season, but enter this one having lost three straight with just a 4-4-2 record over the last 10.

One of those losses came against these very Kings on Thursday in Calgary. Los Angeles put together a very sharp defensive game and stole a win as a massive underdog.

So four days later, are they still worthy of being a considerable underdog here on home ice?

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Flames Still Playing Well Despite Results

No team dominates for 82 games in the NHL.

Over the last month essentially all of the elite teams have had a week or two of looking less dominant, at least results wise, and that's just simply the nature of hockey.

Over the last five games Calgary have still played to a very strong 55.63% expected goals rate, and I believe we will see them get back to winning again soon.

They may not be the runaway second favorite in the West like they appeared for periods of 2022, but Calgary's roster composition seems to be working perfectly alongside a very detail-orientated coach in Darryl Sutter.

I'm still believing in this Flames group and not just seeing the excellent record as a gross overachievement like we have seen in previous years from the Flames. This season feels different.

I expect that to show through Monday, as this group senses things are getting a little undone and will be desperate to play a sharper contest heading into the final stretch of the season.

The top trio of Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm, and Matthew Tkachuk have fallen into a more average stretch of play,  but I do not see any reason why we won't see them continue to be one of the league's very best lines moving forward, and I expect a bounce back tomorrow night.

Jakob Markstrom will likely get the start here, and has played to a +9.3 goals saved above expected rating with a .924 save percentage through 54 games played.

Kings Ready for Regression?

Los Angeles recent stretch of strong results while playing heavily shorthanded has coach Todd McLellan in the Jack Adams conversation, looking to make a late push past Darryl Sutter to steal the award.

With a number of key absences on the back end led by the loss of Drew Doughty  as well as some injuries up front to regular NHLers, Los Angeles 5-3-2 record over the last 10 is wildly impressive.

However I have to believe the on hand talent will not allow the Kings to continue to post such results, even if they have fared analytically well in many recent contests.

This looks like a spot for the Kings to hit the wall of regression, because I feel they will run into a roster currently yielding a lot more proven NHL talent ready to bring its best game to Los Angeles.

Jon Quick projects to start here, and has been very strong at age 36 playing to a +14.8 goals saved above expected rating with a .909 save percentage in 38 games this season.

Flames vs. Kings Pick

I had hoped to see better prices for the Flames given the contrasting recent results between these teams entering this game, because I had this pegged as a great spot for Calgary and was eager to back a big bounce-back win.

A price around -170 is not great considering what the true probabilities are, but I am willing to look away from that here and still back the Flames.

Calgary has been one of the NHL's most consistent clubs all season long, and has been excellent at putting a halt to losing streaks quickly. We really haven't seen its play drop off that firmly over this stretch of lesser results, and I feel we are very likely to see them bounce back in this spot.

At -110 for a Flames win in regulation, I feel we have enough value to make a play, in a spot where I think one of the NHL's better clubs manage to get back on track against an LA Kings team that is due to come back down to earth a bit.

Pick: Calgary Flames Regulation Win -110