Golden Knights vs. Jets Odds, Picks, Predictions: Depleted Vegas in Tough Spot
Norm Hall/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Adam Lowry #17 of the Winnipeg Jets celebrates with Nate Schmidt #88
Golden Knights vs. Jets Odds
|Golden Knights Odds||+130|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.|
Vegas will head back in to Winnipeg for the second time in a week, looking to find a better result after being pummeled 7-3 last Tuesday. The contest will again have massive playoff implications, as the Winnipeg sits four points behind Vegas with two games in hand.
Knights Roster Even More Depleted Than Before
Monday was yet another disastrous day for the Knights, who suffered a crucial 3-0 loss in Minnesota. Just prior to the game Zach Whitecloud and Michael Amadio were placed in COVID protocol, which left the Golden Knights even more depleted than they already were.
On top of that, Vegas find themselves in the midst of a very interesting situation with a potentially nixed deal which would send Forward Evgeni Dadonov to the Ducks, as Dadonov’s camp is claiming the Ducks were on a 10-team no-trade list.
Through all of the roster shortages, Vegas have still played to a very respectable 51.84% expected goals rate throughout the last 10 contests. But playing without a number of top scorers while receiving some questionable goaltending, the Knights hold just a 4-7-0 record over that time.
Vegas has also played some notably soft competition over the 11-game span, which has surely helped the respectable play driving numbers. On top of that, the Knights have been considerably sharper on home ice over that sample, playing to a 3-1-0 record, while on the road they have lost seven consecutive games.
It’s unclear whether we will see Logan Thompson or Laurent Brossoit get the start here. Thompson started Monday in Minnesota, but has been far sharper of late. It’s possible coach Pete DeBoer decides to give him both legs of the back-to-back situation with how Brossoit has struggled recently.
Thompson has played to a +0.2 goals saved above expected rating with a .913 save percentage throughout six starts this season, while Brossoit holds a -1.3 GSAx with an .895 save % throughout 24 games played.
Jets in Great Offensive Form
In a favorable spot against a not-so-good Blackhawks team, the Jets found another massive win Sunday, and kept their slim playoff hopes alive.
Offensively the Jets are in an excellent run of form, averaging 4.28 goals for per game over the last seven contests, where the team has posted a 5-2-0 record.
The surge has unsurprisingly come after Nikolaj Ehlers’ return to the lineup. He’s been in great form skating alongside Kyle Connor and Pierre-Luc Dubois, scoring in four consecutive contests.
Currently skating at full strength, the Jets hold a well balanced top nine up front, and offer more capable scorers than this currently depleted Knights lineup. Analytically they hold a 50.36% expected goals rate in March, which is a mark better than we are used to seeing from this group.
Connor Hellebuyck is probable to start here, but it also would not be shocking to see the Jets opt to start Eric Comrie, given that Hellebuyck has shown signs of fatigue, and Comrie has been a reliable backup.
So the choice isn’t an overly crucial one in my eyes from a handicapping perspective, as Hellebuyck holds a +9.9 goals saved above expected rating with a .908 save percentage, while Comrie holds a +6.1 GSAx with a .920 mark.
Golden Knights vs. Jets Pick
What’s left of this Golden Knights roster is a complete skeleton of what we are used to seeing.
Not only that, but they will be forced to head in to Winnipeg on a back-to-back to face a fresh Jets team. Winnipeg are no world beaters, but they have played very respectably of late, and I feel that the team is getting a little boost from the fact that it now finds itself right in the thick of the playoff race.
Similar to last week, I think we get lots of value to back the Jets to get two points here.
I bet the Jets at -135 overnight and the line has already moved to -145 or -150 depending on the book. I’d play it up to -160.
Pick: Winnipeg Jets -135 (Play to -160)