The Minnesota Wild (46-24-12) and Dallas Stars (50-20-12) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 5:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Stars are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-125o / +105u). The Stars are a -120 favorite to win outright, while the Wild are +100 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Wild vs. Stars predictions and NHL picks.
Wild vs. Stars Odds, Pick
| Wild Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -245 | 5.5 -125o / 105u | +100 |
| Stars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +200 | 5.5 -125o / 105u | -120 |
- Wild vs. Stars Spread: Wild +1.5 (-245), Stars -1.5 (+200)
- Wild vs. Stars Over/Under: 5.5 (-125o / +105u)
- Wild vs. Stars Moneyline: Wild +100, Stars -120
Wild vs. Stars Preview
Minnesota Wild
Here we go again with the Wild. Over the last 14 seasons, no team has reached the playoffs more often than Minnesota, yet it’s advanced past the first round just twice in that span, and not since 2014-15.
The road doesn't get any easier this year. A first-round matchup with Dallas pits the second and third-best teams in the West against each other right out of the gate. It's a tough test, but the Wild have never been more prepared, rolling out its best roster in franchise history.
Minnesota is one of just two teams with multiple 40-goal scorers, thanks to Kirill Kaprizov (45) and Matt Boldy (42). Oddly enough, Dallas is the other, with Wyatt Johnston (45) and Jason Robertson (45).
Beyond that top-end firepower, Joel Eriksson Ek remains one of the league's premier two-way centers, and a strong year from Vladimir Tarasenko has added depth, chipping in 23 goals from the third line.
The blue line is just as strong, with a true game-changer in Quinn Hughes, and Brock Faber continuing to emerge as one of the better two-way defenders.
There's no understating how much the Hughes trade on December 14 defined Minnesota's season. It's fair to split the year into two chapters: pre-Hughes and post-Hughes.
Quick side note: Hughes didn't fly with the team to Dallas after missing the last two practices with an illness, but he made the trip separately later Friday and will be in the lineup tonight.
Since his debut, the Wild are 27.7% on the power play and finished the season with a franchise-record 25.2% overall. The power play has long been a sore spot and a recurring issue in its playoff struggles, making the jump this year especially significant.
When healthy, the offense is as dangerous as any in the league, and it heads into the postseason all systems go. Over the last 20 games, Minnesota ranks fifth in xGF/60 (3.5) and owns a 54.36% expected goal share.
The big question mark right now is goaltending. The Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt tandem has been very solid this season, but not without its ups and downs.
Wallstedt cooled off after a strong November and December, while Gustavsson is limping into the playoffs. He's allowed four or more goals in five of his last six starts, posting an .836 SV% in those games.
Wallstedt, meanwhile, has found his groove again, giving up two goals or fewer in each of his last seven appearances with a .935 SV% and 1.84 GAA, to go along with a +5.4 GSAx over his last 10.
Part of me finds the decision surprising, part of me doesn't. The rookie Wallstedt will make his playoff debut tonight over Gustavsson, who has handled the bulk of the starts this season, and while there's no telling how he'll handle the stage, the move is understandable.
On top of a stellar last seven appearances and playing with a ton of confidence, Wallstedt is 9-3-4 this season with a league-best .931 SV% against playoff teams.
Dallas Stars
For as great as the Stars have been this season, they've been a streaky team. They lost 10 of 13 from December 23 to January 22, rattled off 15 wins in 17 games from January 23 to March 18, only to drop 7 of 9 between March 19 and April 4.
The good news is that Dallas is back in the win column, with five straight wins heading into the playoffs.
Also on the good news front, Miro Heiskanen is expected back in the lineup tonight after missing the last three games with a lower-body injury suffered against the Wild just over a week ago.
Even with the strong finish, Dallas didn't quite look like itself over the final month of the season, owning a 21st-ranked expected goal share of 48.71% and a -2.7 expected goal differential over its last 20 games, while ranking 26th in xGF/60 (2.8).
Even so, this is an extremely well-rounded team with a ton of playoff experience, having reached the Conference Finals in each of the last three seasons.
As mentioned, the Stars have two 40-goal scorers in Wyatt Johnston and Jason Robertson, but their biggest strength lies on the back end.
Dallas ranks second in the NHL this season at 2.66 GA/60 and sixth in xGA/60 at 2.84. The group is anchored by Esa Lindell, Heiskanen, Thomas Harley, and maybe the most important piece if the Stars want to make a run: Nils Lundkvist.
Rounding out the top two pairings and finding a responsible partner for Harley will be key, and Lundkvist has looked up to the challenge.
Another key factor will be special teams. These are two of the best power-play teams in the league, with Dallas ranking second at 28.6%, which then brings the conversation to Jake Oettinger.
He finished the season with a sub-.900 SV% for the first time in his career, and digging deeper, he posted a .911 SV% at even strength but just an .844 SV% against the power play, ranking 46th among goalies with at least 20 games played.
That number becomes even more interesting when you consider opposing goaltender Jesper Wallstedt, who ranked fifth in that same category at .903 SV%. With two of the top power-play units in the league squaring off and razor-thin margins elsewhere on paper, special teams could very well swing the series.
That said, the Minnesota-native Oettinger has absolutely loved facing his hometown team, going 13-3-4 across the regular season and playoffs with a .923 SV% and 2.25 GAA. The numbers get even better when isolating the playoffs, where he's posted a .929 SV% and 2.01 GAA in six postseason starts.
Wild vs. Stars Prediction
This matchup felt inevitable for much of the season, and it should live up to every ounce of the anticipation. Four of the league's top-10 goal scorers, a pair of Norris Trophy candidates, and 15 Olympic participants are scattered throughout the two lineups.
The teams split a four-game season series, with one of Minnesota's wins coming in overtime. They met just nine days ago in a 5-4 thriller that Dallas won, and honestly, I could be convinced with just about any outcome in tonight's game.
The goaltending situation is the biggest storyline for Minnesota entering the series. It'll be interesting to see how the Wallstedt and Gustavsson decision plays out during the rest of the series, assuming they ride the hot hand. Alternating starts doesn't seem logical for a team looking to go on a deep run, which is certainly what Minnesota is hoping to do.
For me, that's too big an unknown to back the Wild. That said, I do think they find a way to steal one of the first two in Dallas, so I'd rather wait and see how Game 1 goes for Wallstedt before leaning in.
The smarter play right now is in the prop market.
Ryan Hartman has a sneaky knack for stepping up at this time of year for Minnesota. Over his last three postseasons with the Wild, he's produced just under a point per game, racking up 16 points in 17 games with at least a point in 11 of them.
He's also skating on the top line, centering Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, and has points in eight of his last nine games, posting seven goals and five assists in that span.
I love this pick at almost even money.
Pick: Ryan Hartman Over 0.5 Points (-110, DraftKings)
