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Two contenders will face off in an exciting NHL matchup Thursday as the Montreal Canadiens (7-3-2) and Dallas Stars (7-4-1) wrap up a four-game Western road swing. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Stars are favored at -172 on the moneyline, with the Canadiens +142 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 5.5 (-138o / +112u).
Let's get into our Canadiens vs. Stars predictions and NHL picks.
Canadiens vs. Stars Prediction
- Pick: Dallas Stars to Win in Regulation (-110, FanDuel; Play to -115)
Our Montreal vs. Dallas best bet is on the Stars 3-Way Moneyline, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your NHL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NHL odds page.
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Canadiens vs Stars Odds
| Canadiens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 5.5 -138o / 112u | +142 |
| Stars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 5.5 -138o / 112u | -172 |
- Canadiens vs. Stars puck line: Stars -1.5 (+142), Canadiens +1.5 (-178)
- Canadiens vs. Stars over/under: 5.5 (-138o/+112u)
- Canadiens vs. Stars moneyline: Canadiens +142, Stars -172
- Canadiens vs. Stars best bet: Dallas Stars to Win in Regulation
Montreal Canadiens Preview
The Canadiens have managed the loss of team captain Nick Suzuki thus far, playing to a record of 3-0-0 and improving their record on the road to 4-1-1. Suzuki won the Frank J. Selke award for the league's best defensive forward last season, while also becoming the first Canadiens skater to record 100 points since Mats Naslund in 1985-86.
With Suzuki sidelined, Alex Newhook has filled in centering the team's top line, while Oliver Kapanen has centered the second unit, which also remains without Ivan Demidov.
Incredible play from “rookie” netminder Jacob Fowler played a massive role in the Canadiens’ last two wins over the Winnipeg Jets and St. Louis Blues. Fowler stopped 79 of 80 shots across the two outings and was named the First Star of the Game in both matchups.
Though Fowler made 17 regular-season appearances last season, he still qualifies for the Calder Trophy, and his odds have shortened from 50/1 just last week down to +250 entering Thursday’s slate.
However, the Canadiens have confirmed that Jakub Dobes will get the start in Thursday's matchup. After offering incredible play during the team's trip to the Eastern Conference Finals last spring, Dobes has struggled throughout his first five appearances, as he holds an .847 save percentage and -6.3 GSAx rating in those outings.
Given Dobes' form over the last two seasons it may not be fair to downgrade him too significantly after a small sample of just five outings, but he certainly has not offered form close to Fowler just yet, and confirmation that he will start has led to some significant line movement as you would expect.
Dallas Stars Preview
Over the previous four regular seasons, the Dallas Stars have averaged 109.75 points in the regular season, playing to a record of 199-88-41, and lost three times in the Western Conference Final. The core that has powered that success remains intact entering this season, and it feels like perhaps the Stars are flying a little under the radar after being ousted in Round One by the Wild in 2025-26.
The Stars have played to a 55.18% expected goal share at even strength, with their six elite talents more-or-less offering the level of play that has come to be expected in combination.
Dallas is currently without arguably their best shutdown defender, Esa Lindell, and so far throughout his absence Glen Gulutzan has stacked Thomas Harley and Miro Heiskanen both on the top pairing, leaving a second combination of Lian Bichsel and Nils Lundkvist.
To this point the pairing of Bichsel and Lundkvist has been effective, as they have played to a 62.5% expected goal share and outscored opponents 3-to-2 where it counts.
Jake Oettinger made some technical adjustments in the offseason, and to this point the change has led to excellent results as he holds a +9.4 GSAx rating and .929 save percentage across nine appearances.
He has yet to be confirmed as the starter for Thursday's matchup, however backup Casey DeSmith got the start in Tuesday's loss to the New Jersey Devils, and it would be very surprising to see DeSmith garner a second straight start.
Canadiens vs Stars Pick
Though the Canadiens have earned some important wins thus far with Suzuki out of the lineup, those wins came versus very mediocre Western Conference sides, and incredible play from Fowler was a huge part of the story. While it wouldn't be surprising if Dobes is able to stabilize in the near future, he will likely face a notably tough workload Thursday versus a high-quality Stars side.
While Dallas could certainly author a solid offensive performance against Dobes, it may not need a ton of offense to find success in this matchup with how Oettinger is performing currently.
At -110 there looks to be value in backing the Stars to win this game in regulation, and I would bet it down to -115.
Best Bet: Dallas Stars to Win in Regulation (-110, FanDuel; Play to -115)
