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NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Tuesday, Aug. 18): Canadiens vs. Flyers Game 4 Preview

NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Tuesday, Aug. 18): Canadiens vs. Flyers Game 4 Preview article feature image

Elsa, Getty Images. Pictured: Carter Hart

  • The Montreal Canadiens (+111 odds) and Philadelphia Flyers (-129 odds) face off in a pivotal Game 4 of their series Tuesday.
  • The Habs look to tie the series 2-2 and Michael Leboff sees some value in betting them at the right number.
  • See how he plans to bet tonight's matchup and the series below.

Montreal Canadiens vs. Philadelphia Flyers Odds

Flyers Odds -129 [BET NOW]
Canadiens Odds +111 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 5 (-122/+100) [BET NOW]
Time 3 p.m. ET

Odds as of Tuesday 1:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The Montreal Canadiens are hanging with the Philadelphia Flyers. The Habs are down, 2-1, in the best-of-7 series and are +300 to advance (25% implied probability), but there is a lot to like about the way they are playing in this series.

Playing well but not getting results is par for the course for Montreal. Despite finishing with the 24th-best points percentage in the NHL, the Habs ended the regular season with the third-best expected goals rate in the league. Only five teams spent more time with a lead than the Canadiens during the regular season.

Poor goaltending and finishing doomed the Habs to a mediocre record, but this was a much better team than people realized over the course of the entire season.

The good news is that the Habs are getting great goaltending from Carey Price so far. The bad news is that they still don’t have enough scoring talent to take advantage of their ability to drive play.

Montreal has scored six goals in the first three games against Philadelphia but five of those tallies came via a five-goal outburst in Game 2.

I was skeptical of the Flyers going into this series and nothing I’ve seen so far has really changed my tune. Philadelphia is a solid team without any glaring weaknesses, but it’s still a notch below the Eastern Conference Heavyweights.

The Flyers are lucky to be up in this series.

Philadelphia Flyers Montreal Canadiens
Goals 2 3
Expected Goals 4.49 5.98
Shot Attempts 118 145
High-danger scoring chances 20 32

Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.

Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.

xG numbers cited from Evolving Hockey.

The betting market was way too high on the Flyers ahead of this series and even though Philadelphia has won two of three games, its price has decreased considerably since Game 1.

There’s still a lot of time for the market to move, but I don’t see it dipping much further than +115 on Montreal. Yes, the Canadiens are better than their results but they are still the second-best team in this matchup.

Philadelphia Flyers Montreal Canadiens
Game 1 -162 +138
Game 2 -148 +126
Game 3 -148 +128
Game 4 -132 +115

Odds via DraftKings

The price on Montreal is frustratingly low for Game 4 at the time of writing (5 p.m. ET on Monday). You could have had the Habs at +140 at times during this series so it is a bit tough to go back to them at this number.

That said, I have no interest in laying even the -132 juice on Philadelphia. If that number comes down towards -125, I would be interested but I have a really hard time believing that will happen.

I’ll keep an eye on Montreal’s price for Game 4 and would play the Habs if they get to +125, but I’m also interested in taking a shot on the Canadiens to win this series at +380 (BetMGM).

That number implies Montreal has a 20.8% chance of coming back and winning and I’d say it’s probably closer to 25%. You lose that bet more often than you win it, but I think there’s value taking a shot on Montreal to turn this thing around.

[Bet Montreal to win the series at BetMGM and get an INSTANT $500 deposit match.]

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