The New York Islanders (42-30-5) and Carolina Hurricanes (48-21-6) meet in an NHL Metropolitan Division duel Saturday. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, N.C. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Hurricanes are priced at -104 to cover the puck-line (-1.5), with the over/under set at 6.5 (+100o/-122u). The Hurricanes are a -255 favorite to win outright, while the Islanders are +205 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Islanders vs. Hurricanes predictions and NHL picks.
Islanders vs. Hurricanes Odds, Pick
| Islanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 6.5 100o / -122u | +205 |
| Hurricanes Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -104 | 6.5 100o / -122u | -255 |
- Islanders vs. Hurricanes Spread: Islanders +1.5 (-118), Hurricanes -1.5 (-104)
- Islanders vs. Hurricanes Over/Under: 6.5 (+100o / -122u)
- Islanders vs. Hurricanes Moneyline: Islanders +205, Hurricanes -255
Islanders vs. Hurricanes Preview
New York Islanders
The Islanders saw their painful losing skid extended to three games Friday, with an ugly loss on home ice versus a Philadelphia Flyers side playing the second leg of a traveling back-to-back. New York also lost 8-3 on home ice to the Pittsburgh Penguins on Monday and now holds just a 29.2% chance of making the playoffs per EvolvingHockey's model and a 38.8% chance per MoneyPuck's model.
The Islanders' odds to make the playoffs would improve dramatically if they were to claim two points from this matchup, and one reason the playoff percentages may seem abnormally short is obviously the low expected probability of New York winning this matchup.
Head coach Patrick Roy's side has been in horrid form defensively of late, a point that was emphatically hammered home in this week's losses to the Penguins and Flyers. Over the last ten games they have allowed 4.15 xGA/60 and hold an expected goal share of just 44.54%.
Data aside, New York clearly offered far too many full-fledged breakdowns in this week's trio of losses, in which it allowed a combined total of 16 goals.
Igor Shesterkin has handled an extremely difficult workload this season, and his league-leading save percentage on shots from the slot has masked a lot of flaws for the Islanders, which unfortunately led me to believe he was a good bet to win the Vezina two weeks ago (sorry if you tailed this). Over his last five starts, Sorokin has struggled to an .869 save percentage, but breaking down the majority of his recent performances, it seems that the ugly results have more to do with the team in front of him.
While Roy has made some debatable lineup decisions of late, there is undoubtedly some dead weight on the Islanders' roster, and any iteration of the lineup would still offer some soft spots. Ondrej Palat has statistically been an even worse skater with New York than he was with the New Jersey Devils before being traded, while defensive regulars Carson Soucy and Scott Mayfield have both struggled mightily down the stretch.
While our bet on Sorokin to win the Vezina was horribly timed, I'm obviously proud to have touted Matthew Schaefer to win the Calder Trophy, as he's performed as a full-fledged number-one defender in his rookie season, and there's a legitimate argument to be made that he is already the team's most important skater.
Over the last ten games, Schaefer ranks tied for the team lead with nine points and has averaged 26:20 of time on ice in that span. He now holds a +22.4 goals above expected rating, led by his incredible ability to drive play offensively. He's averaged 3.8 shots on goal per game over the last ten matchups and has attempted 8.4 shots per game in that span.
The Islanders did start. Sorokin in back-to-back games earlier in the week, but it would be surprising if they attempted to do so once again in this matchup, and it will likely be backup David Rittich. Rittich has been better than average backup this season in playing to a +3.7 GSAx and .894 save percentage.
Carolina Hurricanes
It was always unlikely that many observers would be too moved by how the Hurricanes performed this regular season, unless potentially one of their goaltenders happened to be downright excellent.
With a record of 48-21-6 and a +49 goal differential, the Hurricanes are on track to earn the number-one seed. As their goaltending once again does not look overly convincing, they are far from a trendy pick to come out of the East despite being priced as the second favorite by oddsmakers.
Head coach Rod Brind'Amour's side has played more or less the same style as we are accustomed to seeing, consistently playing at a breakneck pace and shrinking the ice for opponents with aggressive pressure in all areas. They hold more high-end skill than in years past and have scored 3.51 goals per game, and only Colorado has averaged more shots on goal per 60.
Over the last 15 games, the Hurricanes rank first in expected goal share and have generated 34.17 shots per 60. Their shot quality does seem to be improved compared to years past, and perhaps not having to get past the Florida Panthers to get out of the East will be enough for them to finally get out of the East under Brind'Amour.
Brandon Bussi is expected to get the start in goal. Bussi holds a .897 save percentage and +3.5 GSAx across 35 appearances this season.
Islanders vs. Hurricanes Prediction
This is obviously a very tough spot for the Islanders, whose defensive zone coverage has been quite concerning of late, particularly in this week's losses to the Penguins and Flyers. While Carolina appears to be a worthy favorite, it does seem to be getting enough credit from oddsmakers in being a massive -270 favorite versus an Islanders side that should offer a higher level of urgency in this matchup.
There does look to be value in backing Schaefer to record over 2.5 shots on goal at -102. This is obviously an ugly spot to back any Islanders skater going over their shot prop, but a price of -102 is drastically longer than the average number we have seen recently for Schaefer, who has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in nine of the last ten games.
While Schaefer will likely spend less time attacking in the offense than usual, he is a safe bet to play massive minutes once again, barring what would be a very surprising blowout win from the Islanders. Considering his eye-popping average of 8.4 shot attempts per game over the last ten and output where it counts, a price of -102 looks appealing despite the tough matchup.
Pick: Matthew Schaefer Over 2.5 Shots on Goal -102 (FanDuel, Play to -112)
