Locky’s First Period NHL Model, 3/9: The Blackhawks-Stars Rematch
Christopher Hanewinckel, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Anton Khudobin
Yesterday was quiet in terms of games, but there were reasonable edges (about 8%) that emerged vs. the opening numbers, and those edges went 1-1.
The Ducks over won easily, but the Capitals-Devils game shockingly stayed under despite several power plays and more than 20 combined shots on goal. It was an “over” period, but definitely not an “over” result, unfortunately.
If you’re new here, I built a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.
To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.
Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars
8 p.m. ET
Today we have many more games on the docket, highlighted by the rematch of the most popular and successful first-period under team vs. the most popular and successful first-period over team.
Blackhawks-Stars, the rematch.
These teams played a couple Sundays ago, and Dallas scored twice late in the first to hit the over. None of that is predictive at all, but I just thought you’d be curious what happened.
The teams’ profiles have remained largely unchanged since that meeting. Chicago still allows an absurd 35.5% of its goals in the first, and has allowed 90 goals in the first overall. The Blackhawks also score a fair amount in the opening 20 minutes.
Dallas, meanwhile, is anemic in the first period, scoring just 33 goals all season. Once again, something’s gotta give.
As for a projection, it’s similar to their last meeting, which I put around 1.5 goals exactly. In this case the projection is slightly higher, but there’s also a very juiced over accompanying it in the market. At +165, I see a reason 6.5% edge on the first-period under.
Yes, I have a Chicago under ticket again. These have been a wild ride all season, although I have managed to pick a few spots where it’s been valuable.