Locky’s First Period NHL Model, 3/9: The Blackhawks-Stars Rematch

Good morning!

Yesterday was quiet in terms of games, but there were reasonable edges (about 8%) that emerged vs. the opening numbers, and those edges went 1-1.

The Ducks over won easily, but the Capitals-Devils game shockingly stayed under despite several power plays and more than 20 combined shots on goal. It was an "over" period, but definitely not an "over" result, unfortunately.

A Reminder

If you’re new here, I built a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.

To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.

Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars

8 p.m. ET

Today we have many more games on the docket, highlighted by the rematch of the most popular and successful first-period under team vs. the most popular and successful first-period over team.

Blackhawks-Stars, the rematch.

These teams played a couple Sundays ago, and Dallas scored twice late in the first to hit the over. None of that is predictive at all, but I just thought you'd be curious what happened.

The teams' profiles have remained largely unchanged since that meeting. Chicago still allows an absurd 35.5% of its goals in the first, and has allowed 90 goals in the first overall. The Blackhawks also score a fair amount in the opening 20 minutes.

Dallas, meanwhile, is anemic in the first period, scoring just 33 goals all season. Once again, something's gotta give.

As for a projection, it's similar to their last meeting, which I put around 1.5 goals exactly. In this case the projection is slightly higher, but there's also a very juiced over accompanying it in the market. At +165, I see a reason 6.5% edge on the first-period under.

Yes, I have a Chicago under ticket again. These have been a wild ride all season, although I have managed to pick a few spots where it's been valuable.

Locky’s First-Period NHL Over/Unders: Full Slate Projections

Download the Excel doc to input odds from your sportsbooks. The table below is best viewed on a desktop computer.