Locky’s NHL First Period Model, 3/8: Fireworks in Washington?

Good morning!

It was an incredibly busy day yesterday, as there were 11 games, and 10(!) edges vs. the opening lines. Larger/smaller edges emerged throughout the day as well.

If you like to bet first periods, yesterday was for you, as there was action to be had everywhere. The edges vs. the openers also performed well, although as we always say, your results may vary (because prices vary).

A Reminder

If you’re new here, I built a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.

To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.

New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals

7 p.m. ET

Today is much calmer with only four games on the docket, but one featuring a pairing of teams with very high-scoring first-period profiles. The Capitals are better than -300 to beat New Jersey tonight and have been playing great as of late.

But more importantly for us, they've been playing great in the first period.

Both the Caps and the Devils score a much greater-than-average percentage of their goals in the first, and the Devils allow goals in the first at an incredible clip, as well.

Combined with a reasonable projected game-total as well (between 6-6.5 in the market) this should be the recipe for a high-scoring first period.

Locky’s First-Period NHL Over/Unders: Full Slate Projections

Download the Excel doc to input odds from your sportsbooks. The table below is best viewed on a desktop computer.