Blackhawks vs Coyotes NHL Odds, Picks, Predictions
Norm Hall/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Shayne Gostisbehere of the Arizona Coyotes
- Chicago heads to Arizona on Tuesday night for a game with little meaning in the big picture.
- Despite the low stakes, the betting market has provided us two good angles for the matchup.
- Below, Grant White explains how he's betting the moneyline and total.
Blackhawks vs. Coyotes Odds
|Over/Under||6 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||9 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.|
Not every game has championship implications, and that’s certainly the case as the Arizona Coyotes host the Chicago Blackhawks on Tuesday night.
Both teams are all but eliminated from postseason contention, but there is a substantive oversight in the betting market.
The Blackhawks compete on the second night of a back-to-back, a welcome advantage for the Coyotes, who are running hot over their recent sample.
Chicago Blackhawks Tired and Shorthanded?
The NHL Trade Deadline is just a few days away, impacting player usage for the Hawks.
Patrick Kane has been heavily rumored to be on the move and was a healthy scratch in last night’s loss to the Anaheim Ducks. It’s expected that Kane will remain out for this Central Division showdown tonight. Moreover, Jonathan Toews is unavailable due to lingering injuries, leaving Chicago shorthanded on consecutive nights.
Player usage notwithstanding, the Blackhawks have been one of the worst analytics teams in the league this season. The Central Division basement dwellers rank second-last in expected goals-for percentage, posting a 41.1% rating on the campaign.
That’s been par for the course for the Hawks recently. Chicago has been outplayed in five of their past eight, with a cumulative 42.6% rating across that stretch.
Ineffective defensive play remains the Achilles’ heel for the Blackhawks. Chicago has allowed an average of 13.0 high-danger and 27.1 scoring chances over the eight-game stretch. Opponents have made the most of those opportunities, recording three or more goals in all but one of those contests.
Those issues will be compounded by skating on back-to-back nights, a scenario in which the Hawks are 1-7-1 this season.
The Coyotes have had a knack for recording points lately, going 5-2-4 over their last 11 outings. That is their best 11-game stretch this season, a trend they could improve against the lowly Blackhawks.
Arizona’s scoring finesse has shone through over its recent sample. They could burn even brighter against a Blackhawks team that mishandled their goaltending situation heading into tonight’s battle.
Arizona’s surge in output goes back 13 games. Over that stretch, the Coyotes are scoring on 11.2% of shots, recording three or more goals in eight of those games. Further, there’s a strong relationship between the Yotes’ scoring capacity and production metrics on home ice; Arizona has attempted 10 or more quality chances in four of its last seven home games, resulting in 19 goals scored.
As good as they have been offensively, the Coyotes leave much to be desired defensively. Arizona has allowed a combined 20 goals over their previous four outings, going over in three of four.
Additionally, their underlying metrics support that ongoing goals against will be an issue, as the Coyotes have forsaken defensive responsibility. Opponents are averaging 10.8 quality chances and 28.7 scoring chances across the four-game sample.
Blackhawks vs. Coyotes Pick
Fatigue and poor analytics are working against the Blackhawks tonight, an exploitable advantage for the Desert Dogs. Still, Arizona lacks the defensive capacity to limit the Hawks’ scoring.
When we factor in the goaltending situation, it becomes goal-scoring will be a focus for both squads in this one. Chicago elected to start primary goalie Petr Mrazek on Monday night, leaving Alex Stalock to clean up the mess tonight. Stalock has posted a save percentage below 90.0% in two of his last four starts. Additionally, he remains above his career norms, implying further regression is expected.
Likewise, the Coyote’s netminders have recorded an 88.2% save percentage or worse in three of their previous four.
Tonight’s matchup could get sloppy, and considering both teams’ sub-standard defensive performances, goals should be easy to come by. We’re expecting the Coyotes to prevail in a high-scoring affair.
Picks: Coyotes (-182 at DraftKings) | Over 6 (-107 at BetRivers)
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