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Blues vs. Sabres Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can St. Louis, Buffalo Light Up Scoreboard? (April 14)

Blues vs. Sabres Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can St. Louis, Buffalo Light Up Scoreboard? (April 14) article feature image
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Joe Puetz/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: St. Louis Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington.

  • The Blues are road favorites on Thursday night against the Sabres.
  • Buffalo is playing out the string of the season, while St. Louis has its eyes toward the postseason.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Blues vs. Sabres Odds

Blues Odds -200
Sabres Odds +170
Over/Under 6.5
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

St. Louis heads to Buffalo looking to continue its 8-0-1 surge, having put together a strong win last time out in Boston for a sixth consecutive victory.

The Sabres have competed hard down the stretch of another developing season, besting Toronto for a fourth consecutive time on Tuesday’s card.

So, will St. Louis continue its offensive push facing a Buffalo team that has still allowed a lot of goals against of late? Let’s see where we can some betting value ahead of this matchup.

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St. Louis Blues

The sizzling run of play for St. Louis has it staying neck and neck with Minnesota for second in the Central Division, with the winner claiming home-ice advantage in a series which is essentially set in stone at this point.

With big steps taken from Jordan Kyrou,  Robert Thomas, a return to form from the once-excellent Vlad Tarasenko and the addition of Pavel Buchnevich working out well, the Blues are quietly skating one of the league’s scariest top-three units up front.

The offensive depth has shown through clearly of late, with some dominant results. The Blues have scored 4.66 goals for per game over the nine-game heater. That rate is even more impressive looking at how many of the league’s top defensive clubs they have faced.

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The Blues are solid at completing passes into the slot, creating the sort of chances that are tough to stop. There have not been many nights where St. Louis makes a goaltender look too dominant in turn, and it’s far from surprising to see the club sit second in the league in goals scored above expected at +40.31 on the season.

The Blues have defended better of late, but are still allowing a middle of the pack xGA/60 rating of 3.09 and succeeding in a fairly high-event brand of play.

St. Louis hasn’t confirmed which of its goaltenders will get the start, which is something worth watching since the difference between Ville Husso and Jordan Binnington has been significant this season.

Husso holds a +18.0 goals saved above expected rating, with a .925 save % throughout 36 games played, while Binnington has played to a -7.4 GSAx and a .901 save percentage.

Buffalo Sabres

In first overall pick Owen Power’s highly anticipated NHL debut, Buffalo put together one of its best games and delivered a big 5-2 win against Toronto.

Power skated 19 minutes, 50 seconds and looked ready to play at this level. He joins a Buffalo team loaded with talent under the age of 25, which has shown a lot of upside down the stretch.

As a whole, the group has continued to compete admirably playing out this season, but has still been prone to allowing a lot of goals, in large part due to what is simply a below-average starting goaltending duo.

In the last 11 games, the Sabres have conceded 3.81 goals against per game. The middling xGA/60 rate of 3.07 is a firm comment toward the poor goaltending seen a lot of nights from Craig Anderson and Dustin Tokarski.

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Blues vs. Sabres Pick

Both of teams have played in some notably high-scoring contests of late, so I don’t see any reason for that narrative to change here.

Buffalo has played considerably sharper in front of goal in its last stretch of games, but we have still seen it allow a ton of goals. In a matchup against red-hot St. Louis and one of the league’s deepest top nines, it’s hard for me to see it allowing a lower than average output.

The Blues have been better defensively of late, but I still see some reasoning as to why they won’t dominate in that regard moving forward. And I think we can see the Sabres put together a solid offensive night at home.

If we happen to get a Binnington start, that will go as a great bonus to this current number of -105 odds, but either way I see value backing this game to clear 6.5 goals.

I would play the total over 6.5 goals down to -110 if Husso starts, which is why we’e happy to take this price now, but I’d widen my threshold to over 6.5 at -125 odds if Binnington is confirmed.

Pick: Total Over 6.5 Goals (-105)

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