NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Canadiens vs Red Wings (Monday, April 15)
(Photo by Joe Sargent/NHLI via Getty Images) Pictured: Lucas Raymond
Canadiens vs. Red Wings Odds
| Canadiens Odds | +180 |
| Red Wings Odds | -220 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100o / -120u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Montreal Canadiens vs. Detroit Red Wings on Monday, April 15 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Red Wings are tied with the Capitals for the final wild-card spot and have two games remaining — a home-and-home against the Canadiens.
It's likely that a 2-0 record in those contests will be enough for the Red Wings to snap their seven-year playoff drought.
So, let's dig into this crucial matchup and get to my Canadiens vs. Red Wings pick.
Canadiens' fans hope that the final games on next season will have some significance in the standings as their young core continues to develop. This home-and-home will provide an opportunity to play in matchups that feature a playoff-type atmosphere. As such, it'll be interesting to see how coach Martin St. Louis' group holds up.
Montreal's top line of Juraj Slafkovsky, Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki continues to play like a true number one unit. Those three exhibiting strong play is the most important thing moving forward.
Sam Montembeault continues to look like a number one goaltender, which is another important piece of the puzzle moving forward. He owns 4.8 GSAx and a .904 save perentage across 40 appearances this season, and has been confirmed as tonight's starter.
However, Montreal's roster is still filled with a lot of below-replacement-level skaters. As a result, the Canadiens have been heavily out chanced recently. Over the past 10 games, the Canadiens own just a 41.75% expected goal share, and have allowed 3.85 xGA/60. They have been outshot by 8.66 shots per 60 over that span.
Losing Kaiden Guhle and Arber Xhekaj has helped exacerbate the teams shaky defensive play. Xhekaj will miss this matchup, but Guhle's status is uncertain.
Despite a lengthy stretch of horrid play in March, the Red Wings still have a great chance to claim the final playoff spot. Bet365 has the Wings at +120 to get in. With tomorrow's prices already out, we can see that a rolling parlay of the Wings winning both games would be +136. The latter likely holds more value, but it comes down to how you analyze the chances of the Capitals going 2-0.
We heard lots of talk about the Wings awful underlying process during their red-hot January and February, and ultimately those statements proved to be true. Alex Lyon came down to earth, and the shaky defensive play started to get exposed.
The Wings are just 3-4-3 over their past 10, but I'll continue to argue that they have raised their level of play lately. They played a tough schedule in that span, and their performances in games versus Tampa Bay, Toronto, Nashville, Florida, New York and against Washington (twice) were quite impressive.
The Red Wings feature a potent offensive attack, which is capable of finishing chances at a rate that's much better than average.
Since returning to the lineup on March 21st, captain Dylan Larkin has put up 13 points in 11 games. He was tremendous in Saturday's matchup versus Toronto and tallied two points, including the overtime winner. Larkin's linemate at even strength, Lucas Raymond, also enters this matchup in spectacular form. Raymond has put up eight points in the past six games and is on a five-game point streak.
Lyon has been confirmed as the Wings starter and has played to 4.0 GSAx and a .906 save percentage across 43 appearances.
Canadiens vs. Red Wings
Betting Pick & Prediction
It's do or die for the Red Wings tonight, and I expect that they'll find a way to extend their season on home ice. At the current price of -220, I'll pass on betting a side, but if you can get better than -210 on Detroit, that's worth a small play.
Raymond and Larkin have been leading Detroit and I believe there's value in betting that narrative to continue. Raymond is priced at -135 to record a point in this matchup, and I see value playing that down to -140.
You can parlay both Larkin and Raymond to record a point on Bet365 at +120, and I would play that down to +115.
Pick: Lucas Raymond Point -135 (DraftKings, Play to -140), Raymond/Larkin Over 0.5 Points Parlay +120 (Bet365, Play to +115)
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