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NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Canucks vs. Canadiens (November 9)

NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Canucks vs. Canadiens (November 9) article feature image

Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Vancouver Canucks right wing Brock Boeser

  • The Canucks head to Montreal on Wednesday night for a game against the Canadiens.
  • Montreal has arguably overperformed this season while Vancouver is on a bit of a roll.
  • Below, Nicholas Martin offers his best bet, which is a play on the "3-way line," for the game.

Canucks vs. Canadiens Odds

Canucks Odds-165
Canadiens Odds+140
Over/Under6.5 (-125 /+105)
Time7:30 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

With a win Tuesday in Ottawa, Vancouver has now managed a 4-1-1 record over its last six games, and the Canucks are favored to keep its tear going Wednesday against a Canadiens side that has arguably overachieved at 6-6-1.

Should we expect the Canucks to keep rolling in this matchup?

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Vancouver Canucks' Strengths Are Showing

If any team was due to collect a win it arguably did not deserve, it's the 2022-23 Vancouver Canucks, who already have five or six tough luck losses just 13 games into the season.

Vancouver was far from the better team for two periods versus Ottawa but managed a strong third period and arguably stole one on Tuesday with six goals from 28 shots.

The game still outlined the Canucks' greatest strength, which is a very deep top nine upfront that should allow Vancouver to score at a well-above-average clip this season.

Over the last six games, Vancouver has played to a 4-1-1 record and generated a ridiculous rate of 4.83 goals for per game.

The Canucks are receiving tremendous play down the middle from the duo of Bo Horvat and Elias Pettersson, and each of those centers units seems likely to thrive moving forward.

Ilya Mikheyev is beginning to hit his stride after a late start to the season due to injury, and he has flashed his elite skating ability with goals in back-to-back games.

Brock Boeser made a steady return to the lineup and likely will offer a notable boost to J.T. Miller's unit that was once thought to be the Canucks top line. Yet he has not shown that kind of form in the early going.

It's realistic that Miller, Boeser and Tanner Pearson can start to manage stronger results moving forward, which would then have the Canucks skating three high-quality offensive units.

Vancouver will not generate 4.83 goals per game over a large sample, but a well-above-average output is realistic.

The Canucks have also controlled play to a very reasonable 50.41% expected goals rate over this six-game tear, and they are likely to be an undervalued side moving forward, sitting at 26th place in the overall standings. Especially since that record is due to eight multi-goal leads being blown to this point.

The addition of Ethan Bear and allowing Jack Rathbone to get more minutes at the NHL level could in theory allow the Canucks' awful blue-line more upside moving forward, as well, though Rathbone did struggle Tuesday.

Thatcher Demko has struggled to a -6.8 goals saved above expected rating and .879 save % throughout nine games this seasonm and he will likely start this contest after resting in favor of Spencer Martin on Tuesday.

Demko's early struggles have been arguably the greatest causation for Vancouver's underachieving record. However, his pedigree dictates a bounce-back moving forward to be very realistic.

Montreal Canadiens Overacheiving Early on

Montreal has remained a very scrappy bunch under coach Martin St. Louis, who honestly deserves some positive marks for having the Canadiens at 6-6-1.

The Canadiens were widely expected to finish bottom three in the NHL this season, and they were priced by most sportsbooks above only the Coyotes and Blackhawks to finish last overall.

The Canadiens have played to a fourth-worst expected goals rate to this point at 39.14%.

Montreal's -6 goal differential is still 12.01 goals above its third-worst expected goal differential of -18.01, and it seems likely the Canadiens' record is likely to trend downward moving forward.

Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield have been absolutely brilliant on the Canadiens' top-unit, but even still the Canadiens are skating a well-below-average offensive core.

Part of Montreal's overachieving record has come from surprisingly dominant goaltending from the duo of Jake Allen and Sam Montembeault thus far, who have combined for a +9.6 goals saved above expected rating this season.

It's possible the Canadiens are defending slightly better than their expected goals rating suggests, but even still, such dominant numbers from that duo seem unlikely moving forward.

Goaltending is very hard to project, and players can always progress, but Montembeault in particular seems unlikely to produce the kind of lofty numbers seen to this point based on his career marks. Montembault played to a -17.3 goals saved above expected rating and .892 save % last season, and an .898 save % with AHL Syracuse in 2020-21.

Canucks vs. Canadiens Pick

Vancouver has settled into far stronger form over its last six outings, and this spot offers two more two points that are very ripe for the taking.

Montreal has not controlled the overall run of play effectively by any means, and this spot projects as another game in which the Canadiens will need to win carrying less of the play.

With Boeser back in the mix, Vancouver is skating significantly more quality forwards, and it should prove hard for the Canadiens lineup to match up with the Canucks deep offensive unit.

Demko has struggled in the early going of this young season while Montembeault has thrived. However, big-picture Demko is likely to offer the better results of these two netminders.

At +105 we have a good number to look for Vancouver to keep it rolling and collect two points inside of regulation, and I would back a Canucks regulation win down to +100.

Pick: Vancouver Canucks 3-Way Moneyline +105 (Play to +100)

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