Two Stanley Cup contenders will face off Tuesday evening when the Tampa Bay Lightning (38-16-4) take on the Minnesota Wild (35-16-10). Puck drop is set for 9:30 p.m. EST at Grand Casino Arena in St. Paul, Minn. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Lightning are priced at +185 to cover the puck-line, with the over/under set at 6 (-120o / +100u). The Lightning are a -140 favorite to win outright, while the Wild are +120 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Lightning vs. Wild predictions and NHL picks.
Lightning vs. Wild Odds, Pick
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +190 | 6.5 -104o / -117u | -130 |
| Wild Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -234 | 6.5 -104o / -117u | +110 |
- Lightning vs. Wild Spread: Lightning -1.5 (+185), Wild +1.5 (-225)
- Lightning vs. Wild Over/Under: 6 (-120o / +100u)
- Lightning vs. Wild Moneyline: Lightning -140, Wild +120
Lightning vs. Wild Preview
Tampa Bay Lightning
Playing back-to-back in a battle between the top two teams in the Eastern Conference on Thursday, Head Coach Jon Cooper's side did not come out ready to play, falling behind by three in the first period versus the Carolina Hurricanes. It seemed logical to expect a sharper performance in Saturday's home matchup versus the Buffalo Sabres, but the Lightning got off to a horrible start once again, exiting the first period down four goals and ultimately losing 6-2.
Realistically, those losses don't mean much to the Lightning. They are still four points clear of the Sabres in the division race, having played two fewer games. But this tough road game provides an excellent opportunity for the Bolts to measure themselves against another Stanley Cup contender, and it won't be surprising if they offer a much cleaner defensive game.
The Lightning hold the third-best xGA/60 rating in even-strength play this season and also own the league's fifth-best penalty kill. They've consistently dealt with a ton of injuries, but skaters such as Darren Raddysh, Charle-Édouard D'Astous, and Gage Concalves have been given greater roles as a result and have handled them very well.
Though Goncalves, Dominic James, Max Crozier and Nick Paul are likely to miss this game due to injury, the Lightning are still much healthier than they have been on average this season. Anthony Cirelli returned from the undisclosed injury that forced him to miss the Olympics Saturday night, and with his return, the Lightning have shuffled their offensive units relative to what we have seen recently.
Cooper split Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov onto two separate units during Monday's practice, as Point skated alongside Jake Guentzel and Oliver Bjorkstrand, while Kucherov lined up with Brandon Hagel and Cirelli.
Like Cirelli, Point also ultimately missed playing for Team Canada in the Olympics due to injury. While missing the Olympics was undoubtedly disappointing, Point played quite well in his first two games back, but he struggled in Saturday's blowout loss.
With Point and Guentzel likely capable of carrying the second line to strong results, Cooper can go back to the Hagel-Kucherov-Cirelli combination, which has been so effective this season. The trio holds a 62% expected goal share across 229.5 minutes of play and, more importantly, has outscored opponents 19 to 5 where it counts.
Andrei Vasilevskiy will likely get the start in this matchup and will be looking to respond from a rare instance in which he found himself pulled from the game on Saturday versus the Sabres. He holds a +19.0 GSAx rating and a .916 save percentage across 39 appearances this season.
Minnesota Wild
Despite a record of 35-16-10, the Wild may not even hold home ice advantage in the playoffs and are staring down a tough opening round matchup versus the Dallas Stars. They have played to a record of 17-7-5 since acquiring Quinn Hughes, who's put up 36 points in 29 games since joining the team.
Contrary to some other contenders, the Wild have a fairly black-and-white need ahead of the deadline, as GM Bill Guerin should logically press hard to bring in another top-six center. It's been a little surprising that reporters have not dropped the Wild as a likely landing spot for some of the better centers on the market very often this week, but as we saw with the Hughes situation, that may not actually be overly indicative of anything.
There's an argument to be made that, based on replacement value, Minnesota would gain more from acquiring a skater such as Nazem Kadri than any of the other true contenders. Ryan Hartman has played respectably on the Wild's top line alongside Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, but is still a far less formidable 1C than what any other contender is offering.
Like the Lightning, the Wild will be looking to get right in this spot after a pair of regulation losses versus the St. Louis Blues and the Utah Mammoth. Across the entirety of the season, they have not lost three straight games in regulation.
At the time of writing, it's unclear whether Filip Gustavsson or Jesper Wallstedt will get the start in goal. Following incredible starts to the season, both netminders haven't been as sharp lately. Gustavsson holds a +5.0 GSAx and .910 save percentage across 38 appearances, while Wallstedt holds a +0.8 GSAx and .910 save percentage across 25 appearances.
Lightning vs. Wild Prediction
With both of these Cup contenders coming off a pair of rare letdown performances, we should see both sides eager to offer much sharper and more organized games in this spot. The Lightning do appear to be a slightly more well-rounded side, but I'm not sold on the value of backing them to win at -140 against a Minnesota team that has been highly formidable at home this season.
My most consistent followers will know that for several seasons I've been keen to bet this type of game requires overtime. Just over a quarter of all games this season have required overtime, which suggests prices in the +320 range provide solid value in any game not expected to be a blowout.
The last 10 regulation tie bets I posted on the Action Network app are up +5.9 units and have gone 7-for-10.
There is certainly some luck involved in actually hitting tie bets, but in general, the main part of my process is simply targeting games where it seems unlikely that either team will garner much separation on the scoreboard.
This game looks to fit the bill, as I'm expecting both teams to offer well-structured performances, and that neither side is likely to entirely outplay the other. That should keep the tie in play, at least enough so for me to believe a price of +320 is worth a bet.
Pick: Regulation Tie (+320 DraftKings/Bet365), Play to +300
