The Buffalo Sabres (36-19-6) and Pittsburgh Penguins (31-16-13) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EST at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pa. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Sabres are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-105o / -115u). The Sabres are a -115 favorite to win outright, while the Penguins are -105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sabres vs. Penguins predictions and NHL picks.
Sabres vs. Penguins Odds, Pick
| Sabres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +220 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | -115 |
| Penguins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -250 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | -105 |
- Sabres vs. Penguins Spread: Sabres -1.5 (+220), Penguins +1.5 (-250)
- Sabres vs. Penguins Over/Under: 6.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Sabres vs. Penguins Moneyline: Sabres -115, Penguins -105
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Sabres vs. Penguins Preview
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo is in the midst of a transition period.
It's amazing to see the Sabres finally get to the point where they can be buyers at the trade deadline, but there is still a lot up in the air for the team. There's a report that Colton Parayko may be heading over, and then there's the Robert Thomas rumor as well.
So by Friday, this team may be looking significantly different. Or they may stay the same.
Now I'm sounding like an NHL insider!
Regardless, we shouldn't discount what this team is, should it not make any substantial changes. I've been guilty of waiting for the shoe to drop because, well… it's Buffalo and any time the Sabres grab momentum, it comes back to bite them.
But this time, the numbers are adding up. Either goaltender Alex Lyon or Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been solid for the Sabres, posting a .908 SV% or better for the season and at least a 4.0 GSAx in their last 10 starts.
Lyon, over the last 10 games, has actually been playing like the best goaltender in the league, with a 12.4 GSAx.
Additionally, the 5-on-5 numbers have been really solid, with Buffalo playing to an 11th-best expected goals rate since coming back from the break, though there needs to be some clean-up on the defensive end.
Luckily, with the great goaltending it's received, those defensive woes have been hidden.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Before we entered the Olympic break, the Penguins capped off their first half of the season with a win against these very Sabres by the score of 5-2.
And they lit up Lyon.
Throughout the multiple stops Lyon has had in his career, the Penguins have always had his number, as he's playing to an .866 SV% and 4.56 GAA.
So this could be a perfect opportunity for the Pens to get back on the wagon after losing to the Bruins 2-1 in Boston on Tuesday.
Coming back from the Olympic break was bittersweet for Pittsburgh. Because while it's having a magical season, it also lost captain Sidney Crosby while he played for Team Canada. And due to that, Pittsburgh's 5-on-5 numbers have taken a hit.
The Pens are playing to an 11th-worst 47.67 xGF% and 3.09 xGA/60, which could be dangerous down the road since they're banking on Stuart Skinner and Arturs Silovs to clean up after them.
There's no word yet on who will be taking the crease, but consider Silovs to be a favorite after not playing on Tuesday. In his previous 10 starts, Silovs is playing to a .924 SV% and a 3.2 GSAx.
Sabres vs. Penguins Prediction
For tonight's matchup, I'm going to completely avoid picking a result and focus on player props here.
This is very much a pick 'em and I wonder about how the Sabres will look right before the trade deadline, where there are a lot of moving parts.
So here, I'm going to focus on shots on goal.
Jack Quinn of the Sabres has turned into an exceptional middle-six player, who I think still has a lot of room to grow. But he's been firing the puck a lot as of late, and over his last 10 games, has averaged over 2.5 shots on goal.
Bet365 currently has him at over 1.5 shots at -190, and I feel great about taking that, a prop that he's cashed in five straight.
Additionally, I'm looking at Yegor Chinakhov, who may not jump off the page, but is a consistent shot producer. Currently, bet365 has him at 2.5 shots at +132.
In his past 10 games, he's averaged 3.0 shots on goal and 5.1 attempts per game. He's also cashed this prop in four out of his last five games.
Add it all up, and we have ourselves a juicy +254 parlay.
Pick: Jack Quinn o1.5 Shots (-190) | Yeor Chinakhov o2.5 Shots (+132) | +254 Parlay
