There will be a lot of moving parts ahead of Thursday's quality eight-game NHL slate, which will feature a ton of game-time decisions and late scratches as the NHL Trade Deadline approaches on Friday at 3 p.m. ET. This figures to be an exciting day around the league, as we should see more deals, while several games carry significant weight in the standings.
Having an idea of how lineups will be adjusted if a certain skater is ultimately unavailable can provide value to bettors on the slates immediately surrounding the deadline, though I have not selected that type of prop for my guide, as the numbers typically do not hold.
Let's dive into my NHL props, featuring picks, predictions, and odds for Thursday, March 5.
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NHL Player Props for March 5
- Egor Chinakhov Over 2.5 Shots on Goal +132 (Bet365, Play to +120)
- Auston Matthews Anytime Goalscorer +145 (FanDuel, Play to +135)
NHL Player Props, Picks
Egor Chinakhov Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+132)
This prop made the cut the last time I wrote an NHL player props piece for Action Network on February 5th, and my more consistent followers will know we have been essentially riding this on a game-by-game basis since then. The price has started to come down (it was +202 a month ago), but it still doesn't seem as though oddsmakers are giving enough respect to the idea that Chinakhov's recent shot volume is sustainable.
Backing the Pittsburgh Penguins to miss the playoffs became a very trendy play after it was confirmed that Sidney Crosby would miss significant time. Pittsburgh has quietly been fairly well balanced this season, though. Even at the time of Crosby's injury, the newly formed second unit of Evgeni Malkin, Tommy Novak, and Chinakhov had been the team's most effective.
Head coach Dan Muse has stuck with the Malkin, Novak, and Chinakhov combination following Crosby's injury; only now it is effectively the team's top line. Across 172.8 minutes of play, the trio has generated 4.10 xGF/60, scored 4.17 goals per 60, and outscored opponents 12 to 8.
By no means is Chinakhov an elite play-driver, but he has the skill set to be quite useful in a complementary role alongside two players who drive play quite effectively, Malkin and Novak. His best asset is his shot, and it's no surprise that he has consistently had opportunities to use it, playing alongside Malkin and Novak on a line that has consistently generated scoring chances at an elite rate.
Over the last 10 games, Chinakhov has scored seven goals, averaging three shots per game, recording over 2.5 shots on goal 10 times, and averaging 5.1 shot attempts per game. The hit rate for this prop won't be sustained at close to 80%, but in his current role, Chinakhov's volume should hold high enough to provide value at prices in the +120 range.
A home matchup versus the Sabres offers a fairly solid spot to ride with this prop. Though Buffalo has remained on fire where it counts, it has allowed 30.63 shots against per 60 over the last 15 games and generally leans on quality goaltending quite heavily. Thursday's matchup figures to be quite competitive, so we should see Muse lean on his top line quite heavily, and in those minutes, the unit should be able to generate a fair share of chances.
Pick: Egor Chinakhov Over 2.5 Shots on Goal +132 (Bet365, Play to +120)
Auston Matthews Anytime Goalscorer (+145)
Following Wednesday's shootout loss to the New Jersey Devils, it's now essentially impossible for the Toronto Maple Leafs to make the playoffs, snapping the NHL's longest active playoff streak. One of the many recent concerns has been Matthews' goalless drought, now at nine games.
It's important to note that Matthews being "due" does not factor into this bet, as blindly chasing that narrative can be a very dangerous strategy. The key reason a price of +145 looks to provide value in Thursday's matchup is that Matthews' chance generation over the last two games, after head coach Craig Berube paired William Nylander on Matthews' wing.
Matthews has had 14 shots on target over the last two games and generated 1.93 individual expected goals. He's a career 15.5% shooter who obviously has excellent finishing ability, so if he continues to create chances at a comparable rate in his new role, prices in the +140 range should provide value.
In playing Matthews alongside Nylander, it should continue to mean Berube does not lean on Matthews to handle a role essentially akin to a skater like Jason Dickinson or Pontus Holmberg and to receive usage more suited to capitalizing on his strong scoring ability.
A road matchup versus the New York Rangers doesn't hurt Matthews' chances of snapping the skid, either. The Rangers have allowed 3.86 xGA/60 over the last ten games and 3.50 goals against per game where it counts. And while this game is relatively meaningless for both sides, it won't be surprising if Matthews fairly hefty usage with the Leafs likely to rest and/or trade several regulars Thursday.
Pick: Auston Matthews Anytime Goalscorer +145 (FanDuel, Play to +135)
