NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Coyotes vs Ducks (Friday, December 29)
Photo by Debora Robinson NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Trevor Zegras #11 of the Anaheim Ducks
Coyotes vs. Ducks Odds
| Coyotes Odds | -134 |
| Ducks Odds | +112 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100/ -122 |
As part of a nine-game slate on Friday, the Arizona Coyotes will visit Southern California to take on the Anaheim Ducks.
Both teams are coming off big wins, and this is a matchup that tends to feature plenty of physicality. These two teams do not like each other.
Friday's game is the last meeting of the season between the two sides. So far, home ice has been the deciding factor in a pair of tight contests. Clayton Keller was the hero in Arizona's 2-1 win at Mullett Arena back on Oct. 21, then Troy Terry scored the shootout winner at Honda Center in a 4-3 Anaheim win on Nov. 1.
Here's why you should look for the home side to prevail again on Friday, despite its underdog status.
Winners of five of their last six games, the Coyotes are sitting in a wild-card spot in the Western Conference heading into Thursday's game. They're looking to chart a course back to the postseason for the first time since the 2020 playoff bubble.
Arizona's improvement this season has come on multiple fronts. The foundation has been excellent netminding from Connor Ingram, who has 9.0 goals saved above expected.
But Ingram has had several shaky outings over the last few weeks. That has led Andre Tourigny to turn more frequently to Karel Vejmelka, who is now playing his best hockey of the year. Vejmelka has delivered the wins in four of Arizona's last five games.
The Coyotes also have more offensive depth than we've seen in past years. Keller is now supported by three other scorers who are double-digits in goals, and Arizona has a dangerous 11th-ranked power play where rookie Logan Cooley has done the bulk of his damage.
Injuries have been an issue. Key defenseman J.J. Moser missed Wednesday's 5-4 overtime win over the Colorado Avalanche with an upper-body issue and is listed as day-to-day. And with centers Travis Boyd and Barrett Hayton both on the shelf, Alex Kerfoot has been doing well in a first-line spot. He has six points in his last five games.
Not to be outdone, defenseman Sean Durzi has been scorching hot since getting back into the lineup following a lower-body injury. He has seven points in three games, capped off by a four-point night that included the game-tying goal against the Avalanche on Wednesday.
It's a quick one-game trip out west for the Desert Dogs, who will return to open a five-game homestand against the Florida Panthers on Jan. 2.
After a month-long stretch of futility, the Ducks have turned the corner again with wins in three of their last five games. Of course, it helps to have Trevor Zegras, Mason McTavish and Jamie Drysdale back in the lineup, but Anaheim still has injury issues. Tough defenseman Radko Gudas has missed two games with a lower-body injury: he's listed as day-to-day. And star rookie Leo Carlsson is expected to be out for about six weeks after suffering a sprain to the MCL in his knee.
The Ducks are hovering near the bottom of the Western Conference. And while Friday's game will be the fourth in an eight-game homestand, Honda Center hasn't delivered much home-ice advantage so far this year. The Ducks are 6-12-0 at home, but their last two wins in front of their fans have come against formidable opponents. They took down the Vegas Golden Knights by a 5-2 score on Wednesday, and beat the Colorado Avalanche in a shootout back on Dec. 2.
In their last 10 games, the Ducks have a decent expected goals share of 49.45% at 5-on-5. Special teams have also been middle-of-the-pack. And John Gibson looked good when making his first start in four games on Wednesday, giving up just two goals on 32 shots.
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Coyotes vs. Ducks
Betting Pick & Prediction
Thanks to their 12-point edge in the standings and strong recent results, the Coyotes come into Friday's game as tidy moneyline favorites at -130. That gives them implied odds of winning of just over 56% — not a huge margin, and probably one that's deserved given their record.
But with the Ducks icing a more complete lineup and getting good goaltending, the difference between the two sides right now is quite narrow. And the tight games we saw earlier this season also suggest that this won't be a cakewalk.
The teams' expected goals shares over the last 10 games are virtually identical, and Arizona has scored more over that time (2.60 goals per game vs. 2.40 for the Ducks). But Anaheim has better numbers than Arizona in several other key categories: goals against (2.90 vs. 3.10), power play (20.7% vs. 12.9%) and penalty kill (80.9% vs. 68.4%).
Feeling confident following their win over Vegas, Anaheim is in a good spot to deliver a plus-money win on home ice on Friday, and take the season series along the way.
Pick: Ducks Moneyline (+115 at BetMGM | Play to +100)
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