NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Coyotes vs Sabres Pick (Monday, December 11)
John McCreary/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Tage Thompson #72 of the Buffalo Sabres
Coyotes vs. Sabres Odds
| Coyotes Odds | +106 |
| Sabres Odds | -128 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -105 / -115 |
As part of a light four-game slate in the NHL on Monday, the Arizona Coyotes will make their lone visit of the year to Buffalo as part of a three-game road trip.
The Coyotes have been one of the NHL's pleasant surprises this year and are looking to claim a Western Conference playoff spot for the first time since the 24-team bubble showdown in the summer of 2020. As for the Sabres, they've stumbled during the first third of the 2023-24 campaign and are now at risk for their league-leading postseason drought to extend to a 13th year.
Let's preview the latest NHL odds and dive into my Coyotes vs. Sabres prediction and pick for Monday, December 11.
After running the gauntlet with five straight wins over the last five Stanley Cup champions, the Coyotes came back to earth last week with losses to Philadelphia and Boston. And after Connor Ingram was named the NHL's first star for the week ending December 3, the 26-year-old gave up nine goals in those last two games.
Ingram is at a .920 save percentage and 9.4 goals saved above expected for the year. But he has now played in nine straight games, so fatigue may be starting to factor into his performance.
Monday's game in Buffalo is the first half of a back-to-back set, which will finish up on Tuesday in Pittsburgh. So Karel Vejmelka should make his first appearance since Nov. 26 in one of those games. He was Arizona's starter for the past two years but is just 2-6-2 this season, with an .892 save percentage and minus 5.9 goals saved above expected.
Injuries have the Coyotes thin down the middle, with Travis Boyd, Barrett Hayton and Jack McBain all on injured reserve. But the Coyotes have been producing a solid 3.23 goals per game and have been getting balanced scoring from throughout their forward group, including a team-leading 13 goals from fourth-liner Michael Carcone.
In terms of 5-on-5 puck possession, Arizona remains slightly below average, with an expected goals share of 48.55%.
With Ukko-Pekka Luokkenen out with an illness and Devon Levi back on Buffalo's roster after a week-long trip to the AHL, the Sabres have picked up three of a possible four points in their last two games — beating Boston on the road, then erasing a two-goal deficit before falling to Montreal in a shootout.
Tage Thompson is now back in the Buffalo lineup, and has points in three-straight games since his return. But injuries remain an issue, with Alex Tuch, Zemgus Girgensons and Jordan Greenway all on the sidelines.
The Sabres are a little worse than the Coyotes at 5-on-5, controlling 47.96% of expected goals. And while they've been decent on the defensive side of the puck, they haven't been able to mirror the scoring that made them so fun to watch last year. They have four players over 20 points, led by Casey Mittelstadt with 22, but only Jeff Skinner and J.J. Peterka have hit double digits in goals.
Coyotes vs. Sabres
Betting Pick & Prediction
There isn't a huge gap between these two teams, although the Coyotes have built up more goodwill and positive momentum this season. Arizona now has enough offensive talent to be a legitimate scoring threat every night. Special teams are solid, and Ingram is as good as any goalie in the league when he's on his game.
For Buffalo, Levi is also showing great potential but is, understandably, going through an adjustment period as he makes the jump from the NCAA. But the main issue for the Sabres is their lack of offensive pop.
The oddsmakers are still favoring the home side in Monday's matchup, despite Buffalo's 5-7-1 record at KeyBank Center so far this season.
That sets up a nice betting opportunity. Grab the Desert Dogs at plus money.
Pick: Coyotes ML (+115) | Play Down to +100
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