Coyotes vs. Stars NHL Odds, Pick, Preview (November 27)

Coyotes vs. Stars NHL Odds, Pick, Preview (November 27) article feature image
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Glenn James/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Braden Holtby.

  • Arizona hosts Dallas on Saturday night, looking to record an upset.
  • The Coyotes are lottery bound, while the Stars are poised to make the playoffs out of the Central Division.
  • Nicholas Martin breaks down the game and gives his top pick, below.

Stars vs. Coyotes Odds

Stars Odds -200
Coyotes Odds +165
Over/Under 5.5
Time 8 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Dallas will travel to Arizona after posting its fifth multi-goal victory in six contests on Friday, with a solid 3-1 victory over the red-hot Avalanche. The Coyotes have stabilized themselves after a dreadful start to the season, with a 3-1-1 record over their last five.

Will Dallas continue to gain ground in the Central Division playoff race against a lottery-bound Coyotes team?

Stars Poised to Return to Playoffs

Many had Dallas pegged as a strong bounce-back candidate this season likely to claim a playoff spot in the West. After a tough last season prevented much of a follow-up to its 2020 Cup finals berth, of late the Stars have began to show why they are playoff contenders.

The Stars have won five of six contests, altogether offering a +9 goal differential with 52.14 xGF%, likely lessened due to playing with multiple-goal leads early on in several of those contests.

The top-line of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski continued its strong form of late, combining for four points against Colorado with Pavelski tallying two goals.

A slow start from Roope Hintz was certainly quite a surprise to me, as he dominated while skating through several injuries last season, but he has found much better form of late  in posting six goals and 10 points in his last eight contests.

The Stars power play has been another strong point, posting a 28.3% success rate so far this season. Both units feature an excellent quarterback in defenders John Klingberg, and Miro Heiskanen, and one of the league’s best net-front presences in Joe Pavelski.

Dennis Gurianov offers some underrated offensive talents and has started to show closer to his potential of late. Gurianov possesses a deadly one-timer, and is a stronger skater than often credited, as displayed this week with his excellent goal against the Oilers.

One area of concern, however, continues to be the play of Tyler Seguin, who simply has not been able to play at even-strength close to the level once offered. Should he find a way to make more of a difference, it would go as a notable boost to the Stars, especially considering the efforts the team is starting to see from the top trio.

Jake Oettinger has also been spectacular over his first four starts this season, but he will likely sit rather than go back-to-back games on a team possessing three capable net-minders.

Braden Holtby will likely draw the start here and has been solid so far this season in stopping .918% of shots faced, with a 0.0 goals saved above expected rating (GSAx).

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Don’t Be Fooled By Coyotes Recent Run

A 3-0-1 stretch for the Coyotes may be nothing more than a natural ebb-and-flow with a game as random and closely contested as NHL hockey, as the club has still looked a significantly lesser squad, posting a 41.33 xGF% rating over that time frame.

Obviously the team wasn’t going to continue to post a win percentage in the .100’s, or lose game after game by multiple goals all season long, but this team is still undoubtedly yielding less talent than any other outfit league wide, and I wouldn’t need much of a number to back them to finish 32nd out of 32 teams come the regular season’s completion.

With Nick Schmaltz and Christian Fischer remaining on the IR, the top two forward lines are skating especially thin, and the offensive lines look exactly how one may expect from a club that endorsed a scorched earth strategy last offseason.

Scott Wedgewood will likely draw the start for Saturday’s contest and has been very respectable in stopping .920 % of shots faced with a 3.3 (GSAx) rating over 10 games this season.

Stars vs. Coyotes Pick

The Stars really seem to be finding their form over their last five contests, and although Arizona has posted some better results of late, I certainly still feel the Stars are winning this contest often enough in regulation to hold value at -125.

Dallas’ recent results seem likely to be replicable longterm  to me given the strength this lineup offers, with their two elite defenders in Klingberg and Heiskanen highlighting a strong defensive core, an excellent power play and a sneaky good top line with the Pavelski-Hintz-Robertson trio.

I’m not going to overthink this one, and I will get on the current number offered by DraftKings at -125.

Pick: Dallas Regulation Win -125  (Play to -140)

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