Ducks vs. Lightning Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Powerful Tampa Bay to Hammer Anaheim (April 14)

Ducks vs. Lightning Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Powerful Tampa Bay to Hammer Anaheim (April 14) article feature image

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy.

  • The Lightning are huge favorites on Thursday night against the Ducks.
  • Tampa is gearing up for a playoff run, while Anaheim is hoping to pull off an upset.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of the matchup, including a betting pick.

Ducks vs. Lightning Odds

Ducks Odds+275
Lightning Odds-350
Time7 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Anaheim goaltender John Gibson showed off the kind of form we're more accustomed to seeing Tuesday in Florida, stopping 52 of 55 shots to give his squad a chance. Ultimately, however, Gibson suffered yet another loss and the Ducks now hold a shockingly poor 2-12-4 record over their last 18 games.

Anaheim will meet another formidable opponent Thursday when it hosts by what will likely be a frustrated Tampa Bay Lightning squad.

Tampa Bay was shut out Tuesday in Dallas and have continued to post relatively middling results over the last month of play. So, will they take advantage of a Ducks team in the midst of some very awful form?

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Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim took Florida to overtime on the road, which could certainly be argued as a big positive considering what we have seen from this young group of late.

However, it was more of a comment on the randomness hockey can produce when it comes to the results as much as anything else, as getting to overtime tied at 2-2 was favorable to the Ducks. Anaheim was outshot, 55-24, in the contest and the Panthers held a 5.53-1.58 edge in expected goals.

It would be fair to say that it's not right to just look at the results of a game in Florida, where next to all competition have been dominated this season.

Anaheim has been outplayed everywhere of late and played to just a 42.38 xG share in all situations in its last 10 contests.

Gibson continuing to find somewhat better form down the stretch would be far from surprising given what we have seen historically from him, but he has struggled altogether this season with a -10.0 goals saved above expected rating and a .905 save % throughout 52 games played.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Even if the Lightning are not as dominant as we're used to seeing of late, they have still managed a 5-3-2 record over the last 10 contests, with an excellent expected goals rate of 55.44 percentage.

Tampa Bay enters this game at full health, and right in the thick of the race for the third spot in the Atlantic Division. The Lightning have been considerably better at home than on the road, playing to a 22-7-6 record at Amalie Arena.

The club has also fared well against the Pacific Division, with an 11-3-1 record in those games. That makes sense considering how much softer the division is overall compared to the Atlantic and the Eastern Conference in general, so I think we will see Tampa building on those favorable trends.

Andrei Vasilevskiy holds a +25.3 GSAx rating with a .918 save % throughout 57 games played this season, while Brian Elliott sits with a quietly strong +3.7 GSAx and a .918 save percentage.

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Ducks vs. Lightning Pick

With how badly Anaheim has truly been the last few months, it's easy to argue this is a great bounce-back spot for Tampa Bay after a disappointing night and defeat in Dallas.

The Lightning didn't play with quite the same level of urgency as the Stars and that's really not surprising considering the spot. Yet, playing at home here against a lowly Anaheim team will carry far more of the play and the elite scorers will get more chances against one of the league's softest defenses.

I see Tampa Bay scoring a high number of goals and winning comfortable much, and at -130 odds, I see value backing the defending Stanley Cup champion to find its game.

Pick: Tampa Bay -1.5 (-130 | Play to -145)

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