Flyers vs. Stars | NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction
Photo by Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Jake Oettinger (Stars)
- The Flyers and Stars duel in a battle between quality goaltenders and lacking offenses.
- Carter Hart will likely be back for the Flyers while Jake Oettinger mans the net for the Stars.
- The trends show the Under is in play, but Tony Sartori breaks it all down below.
Flyers vs. Stars Odds
| Flyers Odds | +205 |
| Stars Odds | -255 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (+112/-138) |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | BSSW |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
The Central Division's Dallas Stars host the Metropolitan Division's Philadelphia Flyers in this Thursday night tilt.
Historically, the Under is extremely profitable when these two clubs meet, with six or fewer total goals scored in 17 of the last 20 matchups.
Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Flyers vs. Stars betting pick.
Will Hart Return For Flyers?
The Philadelphia Flyers enter this contest amidst a stretch of low-scoring affairs, with six or fewer total goals scored in four of their last six games.
Philadelphia's uninspired offense is the primary reason for this trend, as it's averaging just 2.8 goals scored per game over that span.
This inefficient offense is not surprising given the Flyers' offensive metrics. At 5-on-5, they rank just 24th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60).
The defense is not much better, but Philadelphia ranks much closer to league average in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.
Backing up this club is goaltender Carter Hart, who is currently questionable with a lower body injury. However, Hart is traveling with the team for this contest, which makes me believe he will make his first start since his shutout performance against the Detroit Red Wings on March 25.
Putting together a string of incredible performances prior to the injury, Hart is 4-0 with a .933 save percentage (SV%) and 2.20 goals against average (GAA) over his past four starts.
His underlying metrics are just as strong this season. Among starting goaltenders, Hart ranks 12th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.
Will the Stars Score Enough?
Similar to Philadelphia, there have also been six or fewer total goals scored in four of the Dallas Stars' last six games.
Also similar to the Flyers, Dallas boasts one of the league's better netminders in Jake Oettinger.
Through 58 appearances in the crease this season, Oettinger is 33-11-11 with a .917 SV% and 2.47 GAA. Entering this matchup in particularly good form, he is 3-1 with a .926 SV% and 2.03 GAA over his past four starts.
In front of Oettinger is one of the better two-way teams in the Western Conference. Boasting a strong blue that is spearheaded by one of the best defenseman in the league in Miro Heiskanen, the Stars rank ninth in xGA/60 at 5-on-5.
However, while the offense is good, it sits right at league average in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.
Flyers vs. Stars Pick
Both of these teams boast strong goaltenders and better defensive metrics than offensive, which is typically a good recipe for the Under. Not only do both of these goaltenders enter this contest with terrific numbers recently, but each of them boast previous success against tonight's opponent.
Through three career starts against Dallas, Hart possesses a .932 SV% and 2.05 GAA.
Meanwhile, Oettinger is a dominant 2-0 with a .970 SV% and 1.00 GAA over his two career starts against Philadelphia.
With six or fewer goals scored in 17 of the last 20 meetings between these two clubs, the Under is the play to make once again in this contest.
Pick: Under 6 (-109) | Play to -125 |
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