Hurricanes vs. Lightning Odds, Pick, Prediction: Should Carolina Be an Underdog Here?
Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Steven Stamkos
- Updated Hurricanes vs. Lightning odds list Tampa as a -125 favorite, with Carolina at +105, which is down from five cents earlier in the day on Tuesday.
- Nicholas Martin thinks the Canes' roster is deeper at the moment, and believes they're still priced too high as a short underdog.
- Get his full Hurricanes vs. Lightning preview and pick below.
Lightning vs. Hurricanes Odds
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.|
The Carolina Hurricanes will head to Amalie Arena with an opportunity to make amends for an embarrassing 5-2 defeat Saturday, albeit against a dominant Panthers squad, by getting two points against the defending Stanley Cup champions.
This is a revenge spot for the Canes as the Bolts knocked them out of Round 2 of the 2021 postseason in five games.
Tampa Bay has gotten back to its winning ways over a 4-0-1 stretch, but this is a tough matchup against the 9-1 Hurricanes.
Carolina’s Success Is Legitimate
The Hurricanes lost the script early against a downright scary Florida Panthers team Saturday, allowing three power play goals en route to a 4-0 first period deficit. Rod Brind’Amour’s team was simply out of sorts from the jump against Florida, which is bound to happen over an 82-game schedule.
Playing at a 148-point pace is obviously not sustainable, but it’s hard to argue with how well the Canes are playing. Carolina’s deep, young core has repeatedly posted spectacular results over the last three seasons and with a number of key players entering their respective primes, it’s not surprising that Carolina is off and running.
Sebastien Aho and Andrei Svechnikov have taken their excellent play to another level in the early going this season, combining for 24 points in the Canes opening 10 contests.
Whether people want to accept it or not, Tony DeAngelo has been excellent in taking over Dougie Hamilton’s role on the Canes vaunted power play, and the unit is again humming near the top of the league at 25.6%. DeAngelo has posted 10 points, with five coming on the man-advantage.
Defender Brett Pesce, and RW Nino Niederreiter will remain out for Carolina, and while both are underrated pieces, the Canes lineup still offers scary depth at both positions.
Frederik Andersen will surely draw the big start, and has been very good in the early going this season, stopping 9.5 goals above expected, with a .939 save percentage.
Is Tampa Bay Back?
After a sluggish start, the Lightning have rattled off a 4-0-1 stretch, putting them in third place in the Atlantic at 6-3-2. Jon Cooper ripped his team publicly for “beating themselves” in Toronto Thursday night, and his bunch responded with a 5-3 win in Ottawa two days later.
That said, Tampa didn’t look all that sharp in any of its last three contests according to the eye test, and I feel its 58.3% expected goal rate in those games is not all that indicative of the overall play.
Even without Nikita Kucherov, the Lightning still boast one of the very best rosters in the NHL, but I don’t think this club will finish near the top of the Atlantic Division. Thus, backing them as considerable favorites over a team as good as Carolina is not a +EV play during the regular season.
The Lightning will also be without puck-moving defenseman Mikhail Sergachev, which is a significant loss for this blueline.
The Lightning rested Andrei Vasilevskiy against Ottawa, and will certainly go back to their horse for this big showdown against an excellent team. Vasilevskiy continues to post spectacular numbers, stopping 4.2 goals above expected with a .919 save % so far this season.
Hurricanes vs. Lightning Pick
NHL bettors tend to overvalue playoff results when looking towards the regular season, but in reality Carolina’s roster is just as strong as the current group in Tampa Bay, and the short-term results so far run true to what I expect for the rest of the regular season from these teams.
Andrei Vasilevskiy is undoubtedly the best goaltender in the game and is able to win games on his own on any given night, but you just have to hope that isn’t the case when you see value going against the Bolts.
I think Tampa Bay’s recent hot streak is causing their price to be a bit inflated here, as I fully expect Carolina to outshoot, outpace and carry the play against the Bolts tomorrow.
I see a lot of value with Carolina priced as an underdog here and I see a lot of value backing one of the league’s deepest outfits to get a win against a team that will likely be overvalued for most of the season — albeit for good reason after back-to-back championships.
Pick: Carolina Hurricanes +110 (down to -105)