Kraken vs Predators Odds, Pick: Seattle Has the Edge (March 23)

Kraken vs. Predators Odds

The Seattle Kraken head to Nashville to take on the Predators after a huge overtime win on Tuesday. Seattle has played solid hockey in its quest to stay in playoff position and is 6-3-1 in its last 10 games.

Nashville has fared much better than I expected, going 5-3-2 in its last 10, including a huge 7-3 win recently against Buffalo. The Predators are clearly playing freely since trading several key players, as well as dealing with an abundance of injuries.

Here’s a look at my breakdown for this game and a Kraken vs. Predators pick.

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Seattle Eyes First Playoff Berth

Defenseman Vince Dunn is letting everyone know who he is, playing like Seattle’s best player and leading scorer. Jared McCann (34 goals) and veteran Jordan Eberle aren’t far behind, providing stability. Matty Beniers has been huge for the Kraken, becoming the favorite to win Rookie of the Year.

Seattle has played decent hockey, maintaining a strong even-strength attack. Since March 1, the Kraken are 13th in expected goals with a 52.8 expected goals for percentage (xGF%). The power play does need to improve, though, only scoring 19.3% of the time.

Seattle's even-strength defense has been pretty solid, with a 2.46 xGA/60. Problem is its goaltending has been a problem. Seattle allows 3.2 goals per game, which isn’t bad, but the penalty kill is sixth worst at 74.4%.

Since its inception, goaltending has been a pain point for Seattle. Philipp Grubauer (who’s day-to-day) hasn’t lived up to his contract. Martin Jones has seen success, even though his numbers are terrible. He’s playing to a -6.1 goals saved above expected (GSAx) and an .887 save percentage (SV%).

Nashville Needs Consistent Offense

Nashville traded a few of its top producers and suffered major injuries to Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen. Captain Roman Josi also missed the last game and is day-to-day. Matt Duchene had struggled, but he had a much-needed three point night on Tuesday. Behind him, players like Tommy Novak and Luke Evangelista are chipping in, with the latter providing nine points in his last 11 games.

Finding a legitimate offensive attack is rare in the Music City. Nashville is 21st since March 1 with a 45.42 xGF and has the seventh worst power play, scoring at an 18.1% pace.

Historically, the Predators have always been a great defensive team, but not this year. Losing Mattias Ekholm hurts and since March 1, the Preds are 23rd with a rate of 3.03 expected goals against per 60 minutes. Having elite goaltending can help mask, though, since they allow 2.94 goals per game and the penalty kill is successful 81.7% of the time.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Juuse Saros plays here. Despite the Predators lack of success, Saros is still among the elites. The Finnish netminder is playing to a +33.8 GSAx and a .917 SV%.

Kraken vs. Predators Pick

This is an interesting one to watch.

I'd be very wary backing the Predators at the stage they are currently in. It’s clear that calling up Evangelista has been a massive spark plug for them, but it’s so hard to trust Nashville. Prior to the Preds' win on Tuesday, they were on a three-game losing streak.

The one problem is goaltending. Seattle is notorious for getting itself in high-scoring games. I'd argue that the Kraken would win more games if goaltending was better. Luckily, they’ve handled games they should win, and tonight’s game is one they absolutely should be victorious.

I just trust the Kraken more. They’ve been exceptional on both ends of the ice and have become a legitimate threat in the Western Conference.

This is also a potential game for Saros to steal, which he’s proven to do countless times. However, I think the chances favor the Kraken.

Pick: Kraken ML (-125)

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