NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Maple Leafs vs Kraken (Sunday, January 21)
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Oliver Bjorkstrand #22 of the Seattle Kraken.
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken Odds
| Maple Leafs Odds | -115 |
| Kraken Odds | -104 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -105o / -115u |
There's no time for the Toronto Maple Leafs to sit and lick their wounds. Toronto is coming off a heartbreaking 6-4 loss at the hands of the Vancouver Canucks on Saturday night, turning around for another inter-conference battle on Sunday. This time, they're heading south of the border for a date with the NHL's newest franchise, the Seattle Kraken.
Seattle is well-rested for this one, last playing Thursday night against the surging Edmonton Oilers. The Kraken dropped that decision, their third straight loss; however, they still have a stunning 11-2-2 record since the middle of December.
Curiously, the betting market has taken a firm stance against the hosts, but at least some of that Leafs love is undeserved.
Sheldon Keefe might be starting to lose the Leafs' locker room. Toronto's metrics have dipped this season, a downward trend that remains evident over its recent sample. The Maple Leafs wrapped up the 2022-23 campaign with the seventh-ranked expected goals-for rating at 53.5%. This year, that standing has fallen to 50.2%, barely good enough to keep Toronto in the top half of the league. Worse, the Leafs are hovering around the 48.6% mark over their last five, compounding their season-long issues.
The most concerning part of the Leafs' downward spiral is their limited offensive production. Toronto has built their current roster around the Core Four, and no one seems to be producing. The Leafs have been held to nine high-danger chances in three of five, precipitating decreased output. They've been held to two goals at five-on-five in all but two of those contests, failing to surpass three in any of those games.
Of course, things aren't going that well in their own end, either. The Original Six franchise has been gassed for 11 or more high-danger chances in three of five. They also don't have the goaltending stability to offset those shortcomings, resulting in an increase in goals against.
Nothing is going right for the Leafs right now, and they certainly don't deserve to enter Sunday's battle as road chalk against a solid Kraken squad.
As expected, the Kraken's recent play has rocketed them up the standings. Although they haven't been able to keep pace with the top teams in the division, Seattle is just four points shy of a wild card berth, with one game in hand. That makes Sunday's battle against the Maple Leafs even more important as they try to keep pace in the ultra-competitive Western Conference.
Moreover, Seattle's success is grounded in solid analytics. Since Dec. 12, the Kraken are skating around with an expected goals-for rating of 51.3%, bringing their season-long benchmark into the top half of the league. The most notable difference in their play is reflected in their high-danger chances metrics. The Kraken have amplified their rating to 58.5%, third-best in the NHL across the span.
What's reflected in that rating is improved play in both ends of the ice. The Kraken have out-chanced their opponents in quality chances in 10 of 16 while holding all but four of those teams to nine opportunities or fewer. Conversely, they've hit double-digits in 11 of 16, for an average of 11.0 per game.
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Maple Leafs vs. Kraken
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Kraken are deserving of your action in Sunday's contest against the Leafs. Seattle has been resting at home for the last few days, while the Leafs have been traveling across the country and are competing on the second night of a back-to-back. But we'll give Toronto credit for being professionals, expecting them to put in a more sincere effort than what we saw on Saturday in Vancouver.
We're anticipating the Kraken to prevail, backing them at any plus-money number. But we wouldn't be surprised if that victory came in overtime or a shootout.
Pick: Kraken +108 | 60-Minute Tie +370
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