Maple Leafs vs. Predators NHL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expect Defensive Struggle in Music City (March 19)

Maple Leafs vs. Predators NHL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expect Defensive Struggle in Music City (March 19) article feature image

Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Nashville Predators goaltender Juuse Saros.

  • The Nashville Predators take on the high-flying Toronto Maple Leafs in Saturday's action.
  • The Maple Leads, led by new goaltender Erik Kallgren are favorites ahead of this meeting.
  • Tony Satori takes a deep dive into this affair and explains why he's found betting value on the total.

Maple Leafs vs. Predators Odds

Maple Leafs Odds-120
Predators Odds+100
Over/Under6 (-120/+100)
Time7 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Atlantic Division's third-place Toronto Maple Leafs travel to Tennessee to take on the Central Division's fourth-place Nashville Predators in Saturday's NHL showdown.

This is the second meeting between these teams, as the Maple Leafs won the first matchup in a 3-0 shutout back in November.

So, will we see another low-scoring contest or should we expect more goals between these franchises that feature two good offenses?

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Toronto Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs enter this contest riding a two-game win streak, as they have found new life in net in the form of Erik Kallgren. The goaltender is the confirmed starter for Toronto and will look to keep momentum going.

Over his two starts this season, Kallgren is 2-0 with an outstanding 0.972 save percentage. While this number is obviously not sustainable, Kallgren enters this game with all the confidence in the world and should continue his stellar play between the pipes as he bids to be the starter come playoff time.

In both of Kallgren's starts, the total has stayed under six goals. While most of the attention goes to Auston Matthews and company, Toronto's defense has actually been pretty solid up to this point.

Toronto's blue line has held its own, currently ranking 11th in the league in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes  and ninth in average expected goal value of opposing 5-on-5 shot attempts.

Nashville Predators

The Predators are coming off Thursday's road loss to the Philadelphia Flyers. That said, Nashville looks to bounce back against a tough Toronto team.

Nashville will need a good performance from projected starting goaltender Juuse Saros, who is someone that's usually lights out playing at home. This season, Saros' save percentage jumps up to a lethal 0.931 when playing at Bridgestone Arena.

This statistic should not be a surprise to those who have followed Saros, as he now ranks eighth among starting goaltenders in 5-on-5 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes. There have been six or fewer goals scored in eight of his last 10 home starts.

Much like Kallgren in Toronto, Saros has also had the benefit of having a solid defense in front of him. This season, Nashville ranks seventh in the league in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes.

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Maple Leafs vs. Predators Pick

I am riding with hot goaltenders to keep It going in this meeting. This is going to be a play that you will have to stomach to follow along with as both offenses are capable of lighting up the lamp.

However,  I like the price we are getting at under six total goals scored.

The trends support this play and the defensive metrics do as well, so I will be backing the under on the total in this matchup.

Pick: Total Under 6 Goals (-120)

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