NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Oilers vs Blue Jackets (Thursday, March 7)
Andy Devlin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers.
Oilers vs Blue Jackets Odds
| Oilers Odds | -258 |
| Blue Jackets Odds | +210 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -130 / +110 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Edmonton Oilers vs. Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday, March 7 — our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Edmonton Oilers and Columbus Blue Jackets just squared off at the end of January, with Edmonton claiming a 4-1 victory.
Now a little over a month later, will the Oilers take care of business once again, or can the Blue Jackets grab revenge on their home ice?
Let's dig into the odds and make an Oilers vs. Blue Jackets pick and prediction in my NHL betting preview.
Edmonton enters this contest on a five-game win streak, and I expect the good times to roll on Thursday evening.
This win streak is a product of multiple variables, but let's first talk about how dominant its goaltending and defense have been.
The Oilers allowed two or fewer goals in all five of those wins, and they now rank in the top 10 of the league in goals allowed per game and shots on goal allowed per game. They're suppressing high-danger scoring chances at an elite level, ranking fifth in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.
Subsequently, goaltender Stuart Skinner has coasted recently. Over his past five starts, Skinner is 4-0 with a commanding .952 save percentage and 1.47 goals against average.
This success is likely to continue against Columbus, a team he's 2-1-1 against in his career with a .923 SV% and 2.24 GAA. Both of those wins came by a three-goal margin.
That combination of elite blue-line play and goaltending is going to give the Jackets problems, given how much they've struggled offensively. Entering this matchup, they rank 19th or lower in goals scored per game, shots on goal per game, power play percentage and shooting percentage.
Based on their underlying metrics, positive regression is unlikely. The Blue Jackets also rank 19th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5.
This team is even worse defensively, though, as Columbus ranks 24th or lower in goals allowed per game, shots on goal allowed per game and penalty kill percentage.
Once again, the analytics suggest positive regression is unlikely, as it also ranks 29th in xGA/60 at 5-on-5.
Backing up this poor two-way team is goaltender Daniil Tarasov, who's expected to guard the cage on Thursday. Predictably, Tarasov has generally struggled when playing behind this lineup, going 5-8-2 with a .891 SV% and 3.58 GAA this season. Plus, seven of those 10 losses have come by at least a two-goal margin.
Oilers vs. Blue Jackets
Betting Pick & Prediction
Tarasov and the Jackets are surely going to have their hands full against this high-powered Edmonton offense. This year, the Oilers rank in the top four of the league in goals scored per game, shots on goal per game and power play percentage.
The Oilers' offensive analytics are the best in the league, ranking first in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.
Yes, backing Edmonton as such a large favorite is the chalky pick, but there's not a single aspect of this game in which Columbus possesses an advantage. The Oilers are better offensively, defensively, in net, at the circle and on special teams.
Even Edmonton's road win percentage is higher than the Blue Jackets' home win percentage. Finally, each of the Oilers' past 17 (!) wins over the Jackets have come by at least a two-goal margin.
Pick: Oilers -1.5 (-108 · Play to -115)
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