NHL Odds, Pick & Preview: Oilers vs. Kings (May 6)

NHL Odds, Pick & Preview: Oilers vs. Kings (May 6) article feature image

Codie McLachlan/Getty Images. Pictured: Connor McDavid.

  • Game 3 of the Oilers-Kings series heads to Los Angeles on Friday night.
  • The Oilers were priced at -200 or more for each of the first two games this series but could be had at -145 as of Friday morning.
  • Check out Nick Martin's top betting pick for Friday's pivotal Game 3 below.

Oilers vs. Kings Odds

Oilers Odds-145
Kings Odds+130
Over/Under6 (-120 / +100)
Time10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Los Angeles Kings will surely be thrilled to return home with a series split against the Edmonton Oilers in a series the Kings were considered by most to have little chance to win.

After a notable letdown performance in Game 1, however, Edmonton answered with the perfect response in Wednesday's 6-0 win, which certainly checked all of the boxes for a complete playoff performance.

Edmonton closed at -210 before Game 2's 6-0 triumph. Is a change in location worthy of a 70-cent price drop?

Edmonton Oilers

Edmonton played a reasonable game in the first contest of this series, but I would certainly say that for many Oilers fans and critics, a lot of the usual issues of previous seasons seemed to come to fruition.

Most notably, Mike Smith's two shaky goals against allowed the Kings to sneak out with the victory in a series many thought Edmonton could wrap up in five games.

Wednesday's 6-0 triumph was the perfect response, however, and there are a ton of positives for the Oilers to look at from that game.

Smith bouncing back with a shutout would be the most important factor, but the effective play from all four lines was massive considering some of the typical flaws from the Oilers. Each of the four units up front played to expected goals marks above 50%, and the game certainly looked like it.

We have consistently seen the same story from this group — if Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl get shut down, the team doesn't boast enough depth talent to succeed.

To see all four lines have a great Game 2 — and the balance with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins remaining the center for Line 3 — look the way it did is a huge positive for this group.

Edmonton led high-danger chances, 13-10, in the game, which is a notable margin considering the gap in true scoring talent between these two clubs.

Darnell Nurse also looked better after a less-than-excellent showing in Game 1, and his ability to play at closer to top form while dealing with what is likely still an ongoing injury will be very important to the Oilers' success moving forward.

Smith will get the start for this pivotal Game 3. Altogether, Smith now owns a +1.0 goals saved above expected rating in the series. That comes after a +7.4 goals saved above expected rating and .915 save % in 28 regular-season games.

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Los Angeles Kings

Los Angeles may have felt disrespected entering this series considering how strong its play was down the stretch. The Kings played to a 55.10 xGF% throughout April with a 7-4-1 record during that time.

The group features several pieces who are flying way under the radar for the time being, such as Sean Durzi, Jordan Spence and certainly Trevor Moore after the opening two games of the series.

However, for a group that's usually excellent in controlling the run of play that helps cover up a lack of scoring talent, the Kings carried less of the play than we're used to in Games 1 and 2.

That could be a bad sign, as Edmonton has some players who are likely to be far more clinical in front of goal and create the kinds of breakdowns Jonathan Quick can't sort out.

Los Angeles played to a league-leading -37.44 goals scored above expected rating this season and will likely need to find ways to generate more than what we've seen so far to find success against this Oilers team.

Quick will likely get the start in this game. He holds a -1.6 GSAx rating in the series, but I would certainly say that's harsh compared to his actual play. Quick enjoyed a great regular season at age 36, and his +17.8 GSAx and .910 save % in 46 games are closer to what his series numbers should be.

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Oilers vs. Kings Pick

Edmonton's firm response to the Game 1 showing seemed to cover all of the bases we needed to see, and it seems quite possible getting a price this close may happen only one more time in this series.

Seeing the Oilers priced at -140 doesn't make much sense to me and offers a good opportunity to use a play I've loved the last several playoff seasons — backing road sides when home ice has been greatly overrated.

Edmonton closed at -200 and -210 in Games 1 and 2, yet is sitting at -145 in Game 3 after generating more of the overall chances throughout those two games.

That's a 60-cent difference for the venue change, and that absolutely does not line up with the difference home ice has truly made over the last several postseasons.

Even though I believe I actually think this Kings team is better than most people think, it seems like the time could actually be now for this Oilers group under Jay Woodcroft.

With what we've seen from the Oilers under Woodcroft and the kind of response they showed in Game 2, I'll take the risk of some soft goals from Smith to back the Oilers here.

To win this game in regulation at +115 seems like an obvious number to play when I think about it. I would say the Oilers claim one of these games in LA inside of regulation with steady confidence.

Pick: Oilers 3-Way ML +115

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