Red Wings vs Coyotes Odds: NHL Preview, Prediction
DENVER, COLORADO – MARCH 06: J.T. Compher #37 of the Detroit Red Wings sticks out his tongue during a pause in the game against the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena on March 06, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Ashley Potts/NHLI via Getty Images)
Red Wings vs. Coyotes Odds
| Red Wings Odds | -142 |
| Coyotes Odds | +120 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -112 / -108 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Detroit Red Wings vs. Arizona Coyotes on Friday, March 8 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Red Wings have lost three straight games in regulation, and are now just two points above the Islanders in the Wild Card race. They will remain without captain Dylan Larkin for at least a few more contests. Friday's contest offers a perfect get right spot, as they take on an Arizona side which has lost 17 of its past 20 games.
Let's look over the Red Wins vs. Coyotes odds and make a betting prediction.
Prior to this current losing streak, the Red Wings posted a dominant 16-4-2 record in 2024. Still, they did appear to be a side due for heavy regression. Over the last three games they have been outscored 16-5, and their below average defensive play has finally gotten exposed more so.
Over the last 10 games, the Red Wings own an expected goal percentage of only 43.86%. That's the third-worst mark in the league over that span. We know oddsmakers models aren't overly high on the Red Wings either, considering that they opened at consensus lines of -130 for this game, which seemed very short considering how dreadful the Coyotes have been.
Losing Dylan Larkin hasn't helped things, neither has matchups versus two of the NHL's best teams being the Panthers and Avalanche. This ugly week doesn't have to be viewed as the Wings completely coming down to earth.
The Red Wings are a clinical offensive side though, with a number of talented finishers and playmakers skating all over the lineup. I do view them as a team which can outscore their expected rates consistently due to their above average ability to make quality passing plays in the offensive zone.
Larkin is their best forward to be sure, but they are a team that is quietly well equipped to handle his absence. They feature no clear anchors of their regular 12 forwards, and I do believe in an easier matchup that Joe Veleno can handle the role of top line center effectively. Robby Fabbri is a quality fill-in on the Wings top powerplay unit as well.
It hurts to lose your captain and best player. But from a pure replacement level standpoint the absence is being a little overstated, likely in part because of their losses to two of the leagues absolute best teams.
The Red Wings will have an edge in goal tonight, whether they start Alex Lyon or James Reimer. Lyon has played to a +6.0 GSAx and .910 save percentage in 31 appearances. Reimer owns a +0.1 GSAx and .906 save percentage in 17 appearances.
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Losing 17 of the last 20 games probably isn't an overly fair take towards the Coyotes recent play. By no means should they be viewed in the same light as a Chicago, Anaheim, or San Jose as that recent run suggests. With top forward Clayton Keller now healthy again and an easier schedule ahead, it does seem likely that we see some level of stabilization moving forward.
They will likely be without some NHL regulars for this contest. Troy Stecher has missed time recently due to injury, but when healthy has been one of the Coyotes more reliable defenders. He was traded off to Edmonton Thursday. Matt Dumba and Jason Zucker are both likely to be traded prior to today's deadline, so keep your eye on that situation.
It is worth noting though, that Dumba is having a dreadful season so their is no drop-off replacement wise there.
One of the greatest causes of the Coyotes drastic tumble down the standings has been the play of their goaltenders. Early on this season Connor Ingram was loosely in the Vezina conversation, and was the greatest reason for the Coyotes strong start. His play has fallen off significantly, including a really shaky outing last time out versus Chicago.
Over the 15 games the Coyotes have received a team save percentage of just .869. They have allowed 4.26 goals against per game over that time.
The Coyotes have a little more offensive talent left in the lineup than you might expect, but they are never going to be a team that owns much of the overall play. If their goaltenders are letting in soft goals, they are simply not a team capable of overcoming that flaw.
Connor Ingram is expected to start this matchup. He has played to a +7.3 GSAx and .908 save percentage this season across 39 appearances, but it is important to note that both of those numbers have trended downwards consistently since December.
Red Wings vs. Coyotes
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Red Wings' underlying process has not been overly convincing, and they will be without top center Dylan Larkin. Those two factors are being overvalued with this line though. They have a lot of forwards capable of stepping up in elevated roles, and should be able to respond to Wednesday's ugly 7-2 loss.
The Red Wings also hold a significant goaltending edge, as both of Ingram and Vejmelka have been in horrific form recently, while Lyon has remained quite solid.
This line is priced too closely with the Coyotes playing the second leg of a back-to-back. I expect it will move towards the Wings throughout the day, but the current best number available of -135 to bet Detroit is a clear play for me.
Pick: Red Wings Moneyline (Play to -140)
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