Wednesday NHL Odds, Picks, Prediction: Detroit Red Wings vs. Winnipeg Jets Betting Preview
Darcy Finley/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Connor.
- The Jets are heavy home favorites against the Red Wings on Wednesday night.
- Both teams have been underwhelming this season, but is there better value on one side?
- Greg Liodice breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Red Wings vs. Jets Odds
|Red Wings Odds||+215|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.|
The Detroit Red Wings head over to the prairies of Canada to take on the Winnipeg Jets. These teams faced off back in December when the Jets shut out the Red Wings in Detroit 3-0.
It’s been a rough second half of the season for the Red Wings. After surprising a lot of people earlier in the season, they have fallen down in the standings rather rapidly. They’ve gone 3-5-2 in their last 10 games, including two consecutive losses.
This season has been, by their standards, disappointing for the Jets. They were making a push for playoff contention, but after losing their last two games, they’re now six points out of a playoff spot.
Red Wings Slumping Down the Stretch
It’s been an up-and-down season for the Red Wings, but lately they’ve been struggling. While the Red Wings are talented, they’re also very one-dimensional. Yes, they have players who can score like Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi (unavailable due to vaccine status in Canada), Lucas Raymond, and Mo Seider, but the underlying numbers don’t add up.
Detroit is one of the worst teams in generating offense as they only score 2.81 goals per game with a 46.47 xGF% (Expected Goals For). While they do generate a decent amount of High Danger Chances, they’re a very below average team on the Power Play, scoring at just a 17.5% clip.
Defensively, they are a total mess. Allowing the most goals per game at 3.86, the Red Wings also allow a ton of High Danger Chances. On the Penalty Kill, they are the worst in the league, with only a 72% success rate.
Since Alex Nedeljkovic started last night against Boston, I fully expect Thomas Greiss to get the start tonight. The German netminder is posting some awful numbers with an .886 SV% and a -15.2 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected).
Jets Have Been Underwhleming
With the talent on the Jets, you would think they’d be a better team. The Jets are loaded up front. Kyle Connor has scored 40+ goals for the first time, Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler are having great seasons after slow starts, and Pierre-Luc Dubois is putting up exceptional numbers. However, things just haven’t worked out as well in Manitoba as they had hoped.
Over the past few years, the Jets have been a legitimate offensive team, but this year they’ve struggled in generating sustained offense. Only scoring a mediocre 3.07 goals per game, the Jets are ranked 18th in Expected Goals with a 48.71 xGF%. They can score on the Power Play, though, fairly well, scoring at a 21.3% rate.
Taking a look at the defense, it’s even harder to believe that the Jets are horrible on the defensive side. While good goaltending has helped them hold opponents to just 3.07 goals per game, Winnipeg allows the most High Danger Chances out of all NHL teams. To make matters worse, the Jets are also terrible on the Penalty Kill with just a 74.6% success rate.
Connor Hellebuyck has started about 90% of the starts this season, and I don’t see any reason why he won’t start here. Hellebuyck is one of the premier goaltenders in this league and is having a good season with a .912 SV% and a +17 GSAx.
Red Wings vs. Jets Pick
Coming into this game, both teams are horrible defensively. The only thing preventing the Jets from not letting up more goals per game is that they have an elite goaltender covering their mistakes.
While neither team generates sustained offense very well, I’ll give the edge to the Jets here solely based on talent in Connor, Scheifele, Dubois, and Wheeler. The Red Wings have great young talent, but their top producer in Bertuzzi won’t be available.
However, Jets ML at -275 isn’t great value, and there’s value on Over 6 here. Detroit just came off a win against one of the best teams in the league in Boston, and I don’t trust the goaltending behind that defense.
Pick: Over 6 (-115)