NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Red Wings vs Penguins (Thursday, April 11)
(Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images) Pictured: Alex Lyon
Red Wings vs. Penguins Odds
| Red Wings Odds | +135 |
| Penguins Odds | -160 |
| Over / Under | 6 -105o / -115u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Detroit Red Wings vs. Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday, April 11 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The stakes can't get much higher than they are Thursday night in Pittsburgh. The Red Wings and Penguins are tied with 84 points and each has just four games left to play.
The Red Wings thoroughly dominated the Capitals on Tuesday night, but lost 2-1 in their most important game of the season. They outshot the Capitals 43-23 and owned nearly double the time of offensive zone possession. The only thing the Wings needed to do differently was find a way to finish their grade "A" scoring chances.
It's an ironic way for the Wings to have lost because the biggest point of contention between fans and analysts this season has revolved around the team's unsustainably high finishing rates.
Since the trade deadline, the Red Wings have played to a 5-9-2 record, which has hurt their hopes of grabbing a wild-card spot. Additionally, they have allowed 3.31 goals against per game in that span.
Suddenly, tonight is nearly a do-or-die matchup for a team that once had a stranglehold on a playoff berth.
Detroit is 4-4-2 over its past 10, though I'd argue that it has raised its level of play in those games. The Red Wings played well in critical losses to the Capitals, and did well to win the other pair of "four-point" games versus Buffalo and New York.
The Wings own a 48.20% expected goal share over their past 10. That's not an overly impressive mark, but it is much improved from where it has been all season.
The Red Wings will be without forwards Andrew Copp and Michael Rasmussen for this matchup.
Alex Lyon has been confirmed as the starter and has played to a 7.3 GSAx and a .908 save percentage over 42 appearances this season.
In their second-to-last game of the 2022-23 season, the Penguins lost 5-2 at home to the Blackhawks, which ultimately cost them a playoff spot. They now have a shot at a redemption, as a 4-0 run would almost certainly be enough to get back in the playoffs as the Penguins currently hold the tiebreaker over Washington.
It's been a tumultuous campaign for the Penguins, who appeared completely out of it after an 0-2-1 road trip that ended on March 24th. Since that point, the Penguins are 6-0-2, while the Capitals, Red Wings and Flyers have all stumbled.
Michael Bunting has fit in well on the second line alongside Evgeni Malkin and Rickard Rakell, which has helped take a little weight off of the top unit.
Ryan Graves' injury has also been a blessing in disguise, as he had been one of the worst everyday players in the league this season. Noel Acciari's injury is another example of addition by subtraction and both are set to miss this game.
Over the past 10 games, the Penguins own a 51.48% expected goal share and have scored on 13.35% of shots taken in five-on-five play.
Alex Nedeljkovic will start for the Penguins and has played to a +1.0 GSAx and a .907 save percentage in 34 games.
Red Wings vs. Penguins
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Penguins deserve to be a favorite in this matchup and I lean toward them grabbing the win, but there is no value in betting them at -150.
Detroit's defensive form remains a concern, but its recent play suggests it can claw its way into this matchup.
It seems foolish to suggest that these critical matchups have a good chance of going to overtime, as obviously neither team wants to hand the other a point. Playoff style hockey also tends to lend itself to closer scores, as teams offer less in the way of high-danger breakdowns.
You can bet this game to go to overtime at +370 on FanDuel. I believe there is value backing that number and then sweating one of the most exciting bets in hockey.
Pick: Regulation Tie +370 (FanDuel, Play to +360)
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