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Sunday NHL Odds, Picks, Prediction: Buffalo Sabres vs. Dallas Stars Betting Preview

Sunday NHL Odds, Picks, Prediction: Buffalo Sabres vs. Dallas Stars Betting Preview article feature image
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Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Pavelski.

  • The Sabres hope to end a five-game losing streak as they play at Dallas on Sunday.
  • The favored Stars have won 11 of their last 14 home games when laying juice.
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the game and gives his top pick, below.

Sabres vs. Stars Odds

Sabres Odds +230
Stars Odds -290
Over/Under 5.5 (-120/+100)
Time 2 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Atlantic Division’s seventh-place Buffalo Sabres hit the road to take on the Central Division’s fifth-place Dallas Stars. It will be the second meeting between these two teams this season as Dallas won the first contest on the road 5-4.

Can the Stars take care of business at home, or will the Sabres play spoiler as a large road underdog?

Can Sabres Snap Losing Skid?

The Buffalo Sabres enter this contest amidst a five-game slide. Buffalo will have a tall task on the road as it is 1-6 in its last seven games as a road dog, with all six of those losses coming in regulation.

This recent slide for the Sabres aligns with how poor their metrics are this year. Buffalo currently ranks 30th in the league in 5-on-5 expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF) and 20th in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA).

Craig Anderson is expected to get the start for Buffalo, and he has really struggled away from home this season, posting a lowly 0.884 save percentage on the road. All four of Anderson’s road losses have come in regulation.

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Stars Fare Well When Favored At Home

The Dallas Stars enter following Thursday’s 2-1 shootout loss on the road to the Nashville Predators. Dallas is in an optimal spot to bounce back as a home favorite as it is 11-3 in its last 14 home games when laying juice. Eight of those 11 wins have come in regulation.

The Stars have a strong edge in the analytics department over Buffalo as they currently rank 15th in the league in 5-on-5 expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF) and seventh in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA). Another advantage the Stars will have today is that they have confirmed Jake Oettinger will start between the pipes.

Oettinger has been dialed in recently, going 7-2-1 over his last 10 games. In that stretch, Oettinger has produced a tremendous 0.940 save percentage.

This up-tick in performance from Oettinger does not come as a surprise to many who follow the young goaltender. This season, Oettinger ranks 12th amongst starting goaltenders in 5-on-5 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx).

Sabres vs. Stars Pick

The Stars have the advantage in pretty much every aspect of this game. They have the better goaltender, better analytics, better statistics, home-ice and a better roster.

This matchup is one that Dallas has dominated over the last few seasons as it is 7-3 over its last 10 meetings against the Sabres. Dallas won in regulation on the road in Buffalo earlier this season, and there is no reason to think it can’t do it again at home today.

Unfortunately, the regulation price opened at an absurd -200 price. Therefore, I am taking -1.5, and we will probably have to sweat Dallas getting an empty-net goal.

Pick: Dallas Stars -1.5 (-105) | Play up to (-115)

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