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Sunday NHL Odds, Picks, Prediction: Dallas Stars vs. Washington Capitals Betting Preview

Sunday NHL Odds, Picks, Prediction: Dallas Stars vs. Washington Capitals Betting Preview article feature image
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Mike Stobe/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Ovechkin.

  • The Washington Capitals host the Dallas Stars in Sunday's NHL action.
  • Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals, who have been near perfect this month, enter this showdown as solid -150 home favorites.
  • Nicholas Martin breaks down the matchup below and details why he's backing Washington.

Stars vs. Capitals Odds

Stars Odds +125
Capitals Odds -150
Over/Under 6
Time 5 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

After a 4-2 loss yesterday on Long Island, the Stars will be right back at it looking to claim two crucial points from the red-hot Capitals.

Dallas is in the midst of a 3-4-0 slide while playing short Norris Trophy-caliber defenseman Miro Heiskanen’s services. The Stars will need to find better results soon if it hopes to find a playoff berth out of the Western Conference.

Can the Stars find a way to grind out a crucial victory here?

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Streaking Washington Heads To Texas

The Capitals will look to avoid a potential letdown game here after managing one of the more impressive victories of the club’s up-and-down season on Friday in Carolina.

Down 3-2 after two periods, Washington fought back to find a shootout victory, handing Carolina just its seventh loss on home ice this season. The result moved Washington to 7-0-1 in March, during which the club has been on fire offensively.

A 54.97 expected goals rate over that eight-game hot streak suggests the dominant results can continue, especially when considering that Washington have faced some tough competition with two wins over Carolina and one in Calgary.

Vitek Vanecek has quietly posted quite respectable play for the Caps in 2022 and should get the start Sunday. The strong run of play has now boosted his numbers up to a middling -0.3 goals saved above expected rating (GSAx) with a .919 save percentage through 31 games.

Dallas Struggling After Winning Run

The Stars’ Jekyll-and-Hyde season has continued of late, having lost four out of five games after a 5-0-1 tear. Dallas has played to a minus-9 goal differential over that time and seen a number of players hitting a wall.

The concern all season for Dallas has been the over reliance on the utterly dominant top trio of Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Joe Pavelski. It’s an interesting situation, as the nights where a few more players mix in contribution it’s fair to say the Stars hold some solid offensive upside. However, when that line is held in check, the rest of the group seems to as well.

The absence of Miro Heiskanen on the back end has unsurprisingly coincided with the lesser run of results. Heiskanen had quietly been posting Norris calibre play this season, and is a massive absence on the back end, and will remain sidelined here.

I expect the Stars to roll Jake Oettinger back-to-back here with Braden Holtby injured and no time to manage minutes for their No. 1. Oettinger has been very solid this season, with a +5.0 GSAx with a .917 save percentage in 32 games this season.

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Stars vs. Capitals Pick

The Capitals’ recent surge is something that can be replicated moving forward. I like more of what Washington has to offer offensively compared to a Stars team that has been heavily reliant on one line.

Heiskanen’s absence certainly hurts the Stars ability to cover this red-hot Capitals team offensively as well, and I feel we will see one with relatively even game-play, but where the Capitals offensive talents allow the club to breakthrough with more production.

Should Dallas decide not to go back-to-back with Oettinger, we will have gained more value, but either way I’m happy to back the Caps to stay hot here at +105 for a regulation win.

Pick: Washington 3-Way to Win (+105 | Play to -110)

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