NHL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Stars vs Golden Knights Game 4 Preview (May 25)

Stars vs. Golden Knights Odds

Pure chaos.

The Dallas Stars, hoping to gain momentum against the Vegas Golden Knights, squandered an opportunity in front of their home fans. It was unlike anything we’ve seen from the boys in green these playoffs. From a lapse in judgment from their now-suspended captain, to an unlikely poor performance from Jake Oettinger, the Knights have the Stars right where they want them — on the verge of elimination.

Here’s a look at the odds, as well as my betting prediction for Game 4 between the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars.

Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas’ depth has taken over in the postseason. It’s been a marvel watching Jonathan Marchessault. Initially, the wily vet struggled to gain traction, but he then broke out in Round 2, Game 3. He’s easily been Vegas’ most dangerous player as of late. Jack Eichel, with 16 points in 14 games, is also on a tear and becoming the Knights’ most effective playmaker. They’re also getting huge production out of Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson and Ivan Barbashev.

Vegas has had a ton of luck on the offensive end in this series. Given that the Stars’ goaltending has struggled, the Knights have played to an average 50 xGF%, and their power play hasn’t fared well at 18%.

Defensively, there’s work that needs to be done. All season and playoffs, the Knights have had a lackluster penalty kill. Their five-on-five work is respectable though with a 2.42 xGA/60.

For a team that has had goaltending questions all season, Vegas is getting some rock solid goaltending. Adin Hill, the third stringer entering the season, is as steady as ever. After an impressive shutout on Tuesday, Hill is playing to a .940 SV% and a +6.0 goals saved above expected (GSAx).

Dallas Stars

Roope Hintz has stolen the show, leading all playoff scorers with 22 points. Behind him, Jason Robertson seems to have found his scoring touch again, and Joe Pavelski is picking up where he left off. However, the Stars will be without captain Jamie Benn, who is serving a two-game suspension.

Analytically, this series has been incredibly even. Dallas plays to a 50 xGF%, and its power play is among the best in these playoffs — scoring at a 29% pace.

Dallas has always had one of the top blue line cores at even strength. This series, the Stars have played about the same as their opponents but hold an incredible 82% PK.

After getting pulled seven minutes in, Oettinger would certainly like a do-over. He’s been a force throughout the postseason, but Tuesday night destroyed his stat line with an .895 SV% and a -7.3 GSAx. I’d argue Oettinger is starting to tire out. He was overworked toward the end of the season as he started 20 of the final 23 games. Then, he started 16 games in the playoffs.

Stars vs. Golden Knights Pick

Given how Game 3 went, it’s rather easy to think the Golden Knights will pull away in this one. However, I’m thinking Game 4 will go against the grain. Every time the Stars have been served a mauling in these playoffs, they’ve come back with a vengeance. While I suspect Oettinger is feeling the burn, he has always bounced back after a poor showing, going 3-0 with a .913 SV% in these playoffs.

Vegas has been great, but I think Hill is due for a rough outing. Dallas has a ton of talent up front with solid puck-moving defensemen. Despite Tuesday's results, the Stars controlled most of the game. According to MoneyPuck’s Deserve-To-Win O’Meter, the Stars were at 79%. I don’t think Dallas will come back to make this series interesting, but in Game 4, I don’t think a win is out of the question.

Pick: Stars Moneyline

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