Stars vs. Red Wings NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction (November 16)

Stars vs. Red Wings NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction (November 16) article feature image
Credit:

Glenn James/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Roope Hintz

  • The Detroit Red Wings are big underdogs on Tuesday night in the NHL as they take on the Dallas Stars.
  • Nicholas Martin previews the matchup and points to regression for both clubs.

Dallas Stars vs. Detroit Red Wings Odds

Red Wings Odds +150
Stars Odds -175
Over/Under 5.5
Time 8:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+, Hulu
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The upstart Detroit Red Wings will head to Dallas to take on the Stars on Tuesday night. The Wings are big underdogs and playing on the second night of a back-to-back, while Dallas will look to build on an impressive 5-2 win over Philadelphia on Saturday.

While the Red Wings have overachieved through the first month of the season, the Stars have done the opposite, scuffling to a 5-6-2 record.

Will Dallas take advantage of a great schedule spot on Tuesday? Or will the plucky Wings continue their resurgence with another upset?

Dallas Stars

The Stars badly needed a win against Philadelphia on Saturday and they delivered with a comprehensive 5-2 showing. It was also encouraging to see some struggling players like Roope Hintz start to find his game.

The Stars were not expected to be a Stanley Cup contender this season per se, but this roster is much better than a 5-6-2 record and their underlying metrics support that notion. Dallas has skated to a 51.6% expected goals (xG) rate this season and posted a 52.3% xG rate in its last five games.

A key reason for Dallas’ slow start is that Hintz hasn’t played up to the standard he set for himself last season when he was dominant centering the top line in between Jason Robertson (who missed a chunk of games to start the season) and Joe Pavelski.

Hintz, Robertson and Pavelski appeared back in form against Philadelphia, posting a 68.5% expected goals rate. Improved results from that top line would provide a big boost to the Stars and with Robertson healthy, it’s not a bad bet.

Braden Holtby is day-to-day and may not be able to play, which would mean the Stars would likely turn to Anton Khudobin on Tuesday.

Khudobin has been shaky this season with a .897 save percentage (SV%) and a -3.8 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) this season.

Detroit Red Wings

After a couple of flashy moves in the offseason to speed up a lengthy rebuild, Steve Yzerman has to be quite pleased with his team’s 8-6-2 start to the season.

The most important part of Detroit’s success has been the terrific play from top-six draft picks Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond. Neither were particularly obvious picks at the time of selection and at the moment it looks like Yzerman and his front office deserve credit for the two selections.

Raymond has combined flawlessly with Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi on a fantastic top line for the Wings, but the depth behind them will likely come up short in the long run. Pius Suter has led a strong second line, but over the course of a season I expect them to slow down.

It’s a similar situation on the blueline. Even though Seider appears on his way to becoming a legitimate No. 1 defenseman, his supporting cast leaves something to be desired, so it would not be a shock if he begins to slow down as the grind of a full NHL season wears on him.

Altogether, it’s been a terrific start for the Wings, but for the time being I am unsold that this team will hang in the playoff picture for too long.

Having two strong goaltender’s certainly helps their chances however, and will be valuable in this back-to-back instance yet again, as both Alex Nedeljkovic and Thomas Greiss have been strong this season.

Stars vs. Red Wings Pick

Even with Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond playing their way into the Calder Trophy conversations, I still feel that the depth behind the top pieces on the Red Wings is poor, and that the regression will come for this developing roster.

It’s a tough road back-to-back for the Wings here, flying out of Columbus Monday night for a contest Tuesday against a rested Stars team, who I feel are due to post better results than they have during an underwhelming start to the season.

The current price (-175) may seem a little steep when we compare the early season results, but I think this is a good spot to ignore that small sample size, and back a deeper Stars team to claim two points in a very favorable spot here.

I think this number is likely to move towards Dallas as we get closer to puck drop. And if laying decent chalk isn’t your idea of a good time in the NHL, you can get a better return by backing the Stars to win in regulation.

Pick: Stars to win in regulation -130 or better

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