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Sunday NHL Odds, Pick, Prediction: Minnesota Wild vs. New York Islanders Betting Preview

Sunday NHL Odds, Pick, Prediction: Minnesota Wild vs. New York Islanders Betting Preview article feature image
Credit:

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Ilya Sorokin

  • The Wild are road favorites Sunday against the Islanders.
  • Both teams have gotten stellar play from their goaltenders of late.
  • Tony Sartori breaks down below how that translates to value for bettors.

Wild vs. Islanders Odds

Wild Odds -130
Islanders Odds +110
Over/Under 5.5
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Minnesota Wild continue their New York road trip following Friday’s dramatic 3-2 win over the Rangers to ruin Hank’s celebration night. The Islanders will square off against the Wild for the second time this season, as Minnesota was able to fend off the Islanders 5-2 back in early November.

Will we see another high-scoring affair between these two teams, or will we see some better goaltending tonight?

Wild’s Offense Trails Defense in Quality

The Wild’s tremendous defense has been overshadowed by the bigger names in their forward group, as Minnesota has outstanding defense metrics. Minnesota currently ranks fifth in the league in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA).

Minnesota also suppresses danger-chances from opposing teams, as they have the second-lowest average expected goal value of opposing 5-on-5 shot attempts in the league. Meanwhile, the offense can be overrated at times due to names like Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek and Mats Zuccarello.

The Wild’s offense lacks the ability to generate high-danger scoring chances, as they have the eighth-lowest average expected goal value of 5-on-5 shot attempts in the league. While its defense keeps them in a lot of games, good goaltending has also been a storyline in Minnesota this season.

All-Star goaltender Cam Talbot has been very solid this season, posting a 0.910 save percentage. His recent form has also been terrific, as he has not allowed more than two goals in eight of his last 12 starts.

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Sorokin’s Form Creates Betting Trend

Across the rink, we should see another tremendous goalie in projected starter Ilya Sorokin. The Islanders netminder has been one of the league’s best this season, posting a 0.926 save percentage and currently ranks fourth amongst starting goaltenders in 5-on-5 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx).

Just like Talbot, Sorokin’s recent form has been excellent as he has not allowed more than two goals in six of his last eight starts. I love betting the under in Islanders games because of Barry Trotz’s defense system.

Trotz’s defensive system is so great because they suffocate opposing shooting opportunities as the Islanders currently rank seventh in the league in opposing 5-on-5 shot attempts on net percentage. The total has stayed under 5.5 goals in 10 of their last 13 games.

Wild vs. Islanders Pick

In a rare high-scoring affair between these two teams back in November, I like tonight’s total to regress back to the mean and stay under 5.5. The total in this matchup has stayed under 5.5 in three of their last four meetings.

With two excellent defenses and goaltenders squaring off tonight, we should be able to walk away with another Islanders under.

Pick: Under 5.5 (-120) | Play to (-125)

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