NHL on TNT Best Bets: 3 Expert Picks, Including Seth Jarvis for Doubleheader (Wednesday, March 1)
Josh Lavallee/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Seth Jarvis of the Carolina Hurricanes
- Tonight's NHL on TNT doubleheader features Rangers vs. Flyers and Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights.
- Each game features a solid favorite, with New York favored in the early game and Carolina in the nightcap.
- Below, Nicholas Martin shares his favorite bets for the TNT games, including two moneylines and a pair of player props.
Check out my NHL on TNT best bets for Wednesday's hockey doubleheader, which includes a few moneyline plays and some player prop bets.
Tonight's NHL on TNT slate features:
- 7:30 p.m. ET: New York Rangers @ Philadelphia Flyers
- 10 p.m. ET: Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights
New York Rangers vs. Philadelphia Flyers
| Pick | Flyers Moneyline (+190) |
| Sportsbook | DraftKings |
| Puck drop | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Lost in all of the hype surrounding the deadline acquisition of Patrick Kane is the fact that New York is not currently well-situated to play this contest.
K'Andre Miller will be unavailable due to suspension, and he has been incredibly strong this year on the second defensive pairing. Ryan Lindgren is listed as day-to-day, and his status is unclear. But if he is unable to go, New York could be forced to play with just five defenders and both of its usually excellent top two pairings broke up.
Kane has not been present, so his absence will not count as a net/loss, but it is worth noting that this is not going to be his Rangers debut.
The Flyers are far from a good hockey club, but they still have a notably high competition level and an elite netminder in Carter Hart. They were humiliated 7-0 last time out versus the Devils, and I think we see Tortorella's crew bounce back with a scrappy performance at home.
At +195, this is an extremely long number for any NHL game in which one team is holding some potentially viable concerns as the Rangers are on the back end tonight. That makes this a good time to tap into some potential volatility with a little play on the underdog Flyers.
The Pick: Flyers (+190 at DraftKings)
Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights
| Pick | Hurricanes Moneyline (-140) |
| Sportsbook | DraftKings |
| Puck drop | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Carolina is in a fierce battle with New Jersey for first in the Metropolitan Division, and winning that race would mean avoiding a very strong Rangers team in the first round of the playoffs.
That offers some serious incentive to play with some urgency down the stretch – and hopefully a trademark sweltering performance from the Canes tonight.
Carolina has been among the league's most complete teams again this season and continues to make generating anything meaningful next to impossible for its opposition when in top form.
Over the last 10 games, the Canes have posted a league-best 61.61% expected goals rating, which is par for the course for the entire season and seems fitting watching the level of dominance in most areas.
Vegas is a very formidable opponent to be sure, but its recent dominance has come against competition that is not close to the quality of Carolina.
The Golden Knights' injury situation remains far from ideal and includes captain Mark Stone and No. 1 netminder Logan Thompson. Versus top sides, those losses should prove more meaningful than they have at times throughout the last run.
The gap between the top six in the East and top West sides is significant this season, and I question how Vegas' current roster would look record-wise given a Metropolitan schedule as Carolina has had.
Considering the gap in these two teams, -140 is a very playable price to back Carolina in this matchup.
The Pick: Hurricanes (-140 at DraftKings)
| Picks | Seth Jarvis Over 0.5 Point (+110) | Jarvis Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (-118) |
| Sportsbook | FanDuel |
| Puck drop | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Seth Jarvis, the 2020 13th overall pick, has thrived on Carolina's newfound top line, skating alongside Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov.
It seems that oddsmakers are not giving Jarvis enough respect for having developed into a true top-liner skating in an excellent situation with these prices.
In 76.3 even strength minutes together, Aho, Svechnikov and Jarvis have been absolutely lethal, generating 6.45 xGoals per 60 minutes of action, leading to a 75.2% expected goal rate.
Jarvis has quietly become Carolina's second most prolific shot producer behind only Svechnikov, and that should continue considering how much time his unit is spending attacking in the offensive zone.
Splitting a unit between a point and over 2.5 shots is my favorite way to attack this, and I like the price with each of those numbers.
It's worth nothing that double-checking Carolina's lines at the morning skate is worthwhile prior to placing these bets. There is a small chance that perhaps coach Rod Brind'Amour shakes his top six up to include newcomer Jesse Puljujarvi, though I do not believe that splitting up his dominant top unit makes sense.
Pick: Seth Jarvis Over 0.5 Points (+110) |
Pick: Seth Jarvis Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-118) |
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