NHL Player Prop Expert Picks: Best Bets for Brock Nelson, Brad Marchand, More

NHL Player Prop Expert Picks: Best Bets for Brock Nelson, Brad Marchand, More article feature image

Photo by Jaylynn Nash/Getty Images. Pictured: Brock Nelson.

  • There are four Game 3s on the NHL Playoff slate on Friday night.
  • Hockey expert Nick Martin has a player prop pick for Connor McDavid in the Oilers vs. Kings game.
  • Continue reading for his analysis and bet below.

Night five of the NHL playoffs commence Friday with a number of very exciting Game 3s. There are plenty of stars who show value in this four-game slate, including the likes of Connor McDavid, Brad Marchand and more, and appropriately I have player prop picks for each game.

NHL Player Props for Friday, April 21

Brock Nelson Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (+126); Kyle Palmieri Over 2.5 SOG (+130)

Hurricanes vs Islanders
Puck Drop7 p.m. ET
Best LineFanDuel

In a near do-or-die matchup on home ice, I believe the Islanders will find a way to generate a reasonable amount of chances against the Hurricanes' elite defense.

The Islanders' second offensive trio of Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri and Pierre Engvall was dominant in Game 2. They played to an 89.7% expected goals rating, and out-attempted Carolina 20-6.

Nelson had seven attempts on goal in Game 2 and five in Game 1. He will remain highly involved could ultimately see slightly more favorable matchups with the Isles holding last change on home ice.

Pick: Brock Nelson Over 2.5 SOG

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New York's power play has also played just eight minutes combined in the first two games. It will likely end up with more PP time on average, which boosts Nelson's chances. Palmieri has put up seven shots on 13 attempts in the first two matchups.

These are listed together because my plan is to split a unit between two plus-money wagers. At worst, I'm hoping to cash one — Nelson would offer a 26% return while Palmieri would be a 30% return.

Brad Marchand Over 2.5 SOG (-127)

Bruins vs Panthers
Puck Drop7:30 p.m. ET
Best LineBetRivers

With Captain Patrice Bergeron sidelined, Marchand has stepped up. I expect him to continue to lead with another strong performance in a pivotal Game 3.

The Panthers are giving the Bruins all they can handle, and are certainly semi-live to steal the series outright. Marchand will be relied upon in every situation of what could be another close game, and I love the way his potential usage sets up.

Marchand's incredible forechecking and ability to read play has been a problem for Florida's poor puck-moving defenders — such as Marc Staal and Radko Gudas — early on in this series.

He has managed two goals from eight shots (11 attempts) in the first two matchups. One of the best players in the league, I trust Marchand to leave his mark again.

Anything -140 or better for Marchand over 2.5 shots is playable.

Pick: Brad Marchand Over 2.5 SOG

Roope Hintz Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-114)

Stars vs Wild
Puck Drop7:30 p.m. ET
Best Line

Similar to Marchand, I think we can put more weight into a two-game sample of strong shooting output from Hintz given how incredible he's looked.

Hintz, who's stood out the most at even strength, has tallied four goals and seven shots in this series.

Shots could be hard to come by in what I expect to be a tightly contested matchup on Friday night.

Still, Hintz's level right now on a dominant top line, which still looked great with Tyler Seguin in place of Joe Pavelski, should lead to a wealth of shot attempts that cash over 2.5 SOG.

Pick: Roope Hintz Over 2.5 SOG

Connor McDavid Anytime Goalscorer (-105)

Oilers vs Kings
Puck Drop10 p.m. ET
Best LineFanDuel

Sportsbooks will be rooting against McDavid yet again as this could well be the most bet NHL prop on the board.

McDavid, who has just one assist in this series, hasn't made the kind of difference most expected. That being said, he has generated 11 attempts on goal and 1.11 individual expected goals.

He proved his game translates to the postseason last year with 14 points and four goals in Round 1 vs. Los Angeles — 33 points in 16 games overall.

The flashes of brilliance have been there, and I bet he finds a way to leave his mark on the Kings, whether it be two points, or an anytime goal.

Pick: Connor McDavid Anytime Goal

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