NHL Player Props Odds, Expert Picks: Best Bets for Bo Horvat, Matthew Tkachuk, Nathan MacKinnon (Friday, April 28)
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew Tkachuk #19 of the Florida Panthers
- With four elimination games tonight, we've got NHL player props that come with some major stakes attached.
- Our prop bets include Bo Horvat, Matthew Tkachuk and Nathan MacKinnon as targets.
- Check out all of hockey expert Nicholas Martin's picks and breakdowns for the Game 6 player props below.
Friday’s terrific NHL slate features four elimination games, and we have a player prop pick for three of the Game 6 matchups.
Below, check out player targets and the breakdowns for each game as the Stanley Cup Playoffs roll on tonight.
NHL Player Props for Friday, April 28
Bo Horvat over 2.5 shots on goal (+150)
|Team vs. Team||Hurricanes vs. Islanders|
|Puck Drop||7 p.m. ET|
Admittedly, this exact play has already cost us two same-game parlay pieces this series and is yet to cash in five games. I’m sure some of my more consistent followers are wondering why this is making the cut yet again in Game 6.
As with everything betting, it all comes down to the +150 number. I believe it’s now buy-low time on Bo Horvat. His usage and playing style suggest he should be able to average well past 2.5 shots on goal even in a tough matchup.
Horvat practiced on the Isles’ top even-strength line alongside Mathew Barzal and Anders Lee. He remains on the top power-play unit albeit in the bumper location, which has typically been tightly covered by the Hurricanes in this series. Even still, you will not find a 38-goal scorer playing in those kinds of roles priced at +150 to record three shots very often.
Shots are also very random, and that is an important note when talking shot props. A shooter can be very involved and play fairly well but still not end up being in positions to fire very often. I thought that was the case with Horvat in Game 5, in which he put up a 56% expected goals rating and was more noticeable.
Matthew Tkachuk anytime goalscorer (+175)
|Team vs. Team||Bruins vs. Panthers|
|Puck Drop||7:30 p.m. ET|
Matthew Tkachuk has been the heartbeat of the Panthers through five games. He is dragging his team into the fight every night and is the main reason the 133-point Bruins are being forced into a Game 6.
He has put up three goals and seven points in the opening five matchups, and anyone who has paid attention to this series knows that elite production was earned.
Targeting props with Tkachuk and Sam Bennett makes a lot of sense tonight. I think both will remain very involved and will likely be the best Panthers forwards. Backing two Tkachuk points at +172 is another reasonable option.
Since we are going with bet365 for this wager, I should note that only regulation goals count. Bet365‘s “anytime” goalscorer is actually regulation only despite what most would think considering the usage of the word “anytime.”
However, even with that cavaet, +175 is the best number available.
Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 shots on goal (-150)
|Team vs. Team||Avalanche vs. Kraken|
|Puck Drop||10 p.m. ET|
Value doesn’t mean a bet has to be at plus money or long odds; what it means is that we believe our wager is going to win more often than the price being offered suggests. So while this bet is chalky and not an overly interesting handicap by any means, I believe there’s lots of value here.
MacKinnon has averaged 5.64 shots on goal over his last 23 playoff games, and he’s cashed the over in 16 of those 23 games (69% hit rate).
The Avs are losing lots of the depth matchups in this series. If they are to stay alive, it will likely come with huge performances from MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and the like. If this game remains close like I expect, we could see MacKinnon skate well past 20 minutes.
This sets up as a perfect game script to target a proven playoff performer such as MacKinnon. I love wagering on him to be very involved tonight.
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