Odds Boosts Worth Betting: Capitals & Over 5.5 Goals at BetMGM in Select States
Patrick McDermott/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: The Washington Capitals
Most sportsbook boosts are… not so great. They take a bet with a bad price, cross out the line, then put another bad price up that’s only slightly better.
But some are worth betting! By removing the juice from game lines at market-making books and comparing it to the boosted price, we can find the expected value.
Here’s a boost worth betting at BetMGM. It’s under “Lions Boosts” and this particular one is only available in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Washington D.C.
|Bet||Capitals ML & Over 5.5|
|True price as of Wednesday at noon ET and subject to change.|
BetMGM offers different boosts by state, that are somewhat tied to geographic location.
This boost is the only one worth blindly betting on Wednesday.
MGM is offering Capitals moneyline and over 5.5 goals against the Lightning at +350.
Using de-vigged lines from Pinnacle, we get true prices of Capitals +131 and over 5.5 at -156 (the real total is 6.5 at most books).
Parlay those together for a +278 “true price.” And with the boost at +350, that’s giving us a 19% edge.
The Capitals line has ping-ponged a bit, getting as low as +114 before moving back up to +126 odds.
As we mentioned, there are a few more boosts available in other states, which are not +EV and not worth betting:
- Lightning ML and under 5.5 (+290)
- Capitals ML and over 4.5 (+165)
- Lightning to score 5+ goals (+220)
If you’re in Michigan, Illinois, Indiana and Iowa, there’s a Red Wings boost that’s +EV, but not by much.
Using de-vigged lines, you’ll get a true price of +337 and a boosted price of +350, good for about a 3% edge.