Tuesday NHL Slate Breakdown: Expert’s Top Bets (April 4)
Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Jack Drury of the Carolina Hurricanes
- With 11 games scheduled for Tuesday night, the NHL offers plenty of betting opportunities.
- Hockey analyst Nicholas Martin has identified a trio of player props worth considering tonight.
- Check out his picks, including a +380 goal prop, below.
Let’s dive into my favorite widely available plays for Tuesday’s 11-game NHL slate.
For tonight’s lineup, we’re going to focus on three player prop bets.
Jack Drury Anytime Goalscorer (+380)
Senators vs. Hurricanes, 7 p.m. ET
The injury to Andrei Svechnikov opened up a top-nine roster spot for Jack Drury, and he has been doing all he can to make it stick.
Drury has peppered the opposition goal with 30 shots over the last 10 games, and he’s been in noticeably strong form all over the ice. As he starts to earn the trust of coach Rod Brind’Amour, his usage and ice time have become more consistent.
Carolina’s current third line of Drury, Jordan Staal and Jesper Fast has controlled play to a ridiculous 81.8% expected goals rating in 21.8 minutes together.
The line’s actual chance generation is more modest at 2.49, and it is dominating more so in the ability to allow nothing at all defensively. However, Drury has been on the end of the vast majority of the looks it is generating.
He is also receiving minutes on a solid second power-play unit and could break through there as well.
Ottawa is far from a defensive juggernaut with Jacob Chychrun and Thomas Chabot out of the lineup, and the team features exactly the kind of goaltending needed to snap a shooter out of a cold spell.
The +380 odds are a pretty great number to back Drury in a strong matchup considering the number of chances he’s been consistently generating.
The Pick: Jack Drury Anytime Goalscorer (+380 at DraftKings)
Tim Stutzle Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (+105)
Senators vs. Hurricanes, 7 p.m. ET
Ottawa’s top line will face extremely tough matchups all night versus Carolina, which should make snapping out of a less dominant run of play very difficult.
Coach Brind’Amour can use last change to make sure they spend the vast majority of time facing off against elite defensive players. The aforementioned shutdown third line led by Jordan Staal or the Sebastian Aho unit both make for nightmare offensive matchups, and they should see a healthy dose of the Jaccob Slavin/Brent Burns pairing from the back end.
Stutzle has averaged just two shots on goal over the last six games and is getting the toughest shot prop matchup that exists in hockey. The +105 line is a good price for him to record under 2.5 shots, and I would bet this down to -110.
The Pick: Tim Stutzle Under 2.5 SOG (+105 at PointsBet)
Alex Stalock Over 33.5 Saves
Blackhawks vs. Flames, 10 p.m. ET
Because goalie props do not release until later in the day, I am being forced to estimate this number with the hopes we do not see a drastic adjustment in price.
Calgary has cashed the opposition goaltenders’ save prop in 11 of the last 15 games, and much of the reason for that tear remains in place for tonight’s contest.
A save prop of 33.5 would be a higher number than we have seen in all of those matchups except for the two versus Anaheim (which still allows drastically more shots on goal than Chicago), which both still cashed.
Calgary is extremely likely to control the vast majority of the play in this matchup skating in a near do-or-die spot with two extremely easy points on the line.
Chicago has lost eight straight matchups and is not skating enough talent in the roster to carry much of the play at all against a notably aggressive Flames side.
Flames goaltender Jacob Markstrom continues to struggle through some poor form, which has kept a number of Calgary’s recent games closer than they should have been.
That forces Calgary to continue to pour pucks on net and push for offense, which has been a big reason these save props continue to surge over.
If oddsmakers finally open this at 35.5 we do not have a play. But if we get 34.5 at +100, that is worth a look, and 33.5 I would play anything down to -125.
The Pick: Alex Stalock Over 33.5 Saves (Odds TBA)
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