Nevada Democratic Caucus Results & Betting Odds: Bernie Sanders Projected to Win Nevada


Photo credit: Joe Raedle/Getty Images. Pictured: Bernie Sanders

  • Update: The AP and other news outlets are now projecting Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders to win the 2020 Nevada caucus.
  • The results are not incredibly surprising if you've been following the betting markets, which had Sanders at around a -700 to -800 favorite, giving him an implied probability approaching 90%.
  • The next state up is South Carolina, which will vote next Saturday, Feb. 29. It's the final state before Super Tuesday on March 3.
  • European book Betfair has Sanders at -175 odds (bet $175 to win $100) to win South Carolina. Joe Biden is in a close second place in the state at +125 odds.

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders received the most votes in both Iowa and New Hampshire — the first two states to caucus and vote for the 2020 Democratic Primary — and the betting markets think he’s a large favorite to achieve the same result this weekend.

Nevada is the third state in the Democratic Primary calendar, and it will caucus Saturday, Feb. 21. According to European book Betfair, Bernie Sanders is a -700 (bet $700 to win $100) favorite to win Nevada — which translates to an implied probability of 87.5%. Ladbrokes, another European book, is even more bullish on his chances, giving him an implied probability of 88.9%.

Sanders is a very pro-union candidate, and that’s particularly important in Nevada. That said, Nevada’s Culinary Workers Union — perhaps the most important in the state — has criticized him in the last few weeks due to his Medicare for All healthcare proposal.

They haven’t endorsed any candidate so far ahead of tomorrow’s caucus, but their criticism has been a major piece of news. The betting markets don’t seem too worried, however, and Sanders has received endorsement from the largest education association in the state.

Behind Sanders in odds are Joe Biden (+1000 odds, 9.1% implied probability) and Pete Buttigieg (+1200 odds, 7.7% implied probability). The former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, has made a recent play for the culinary union, citing his healthcare plan that allows both public and private options. Of note, Michael Bloomberg, the former NYC mayor who has seen a rise in polling and odds over the last month, is not on the Nevada ballot.

See the full betting odds (via Betfair) below for Saturday’s caucus (implied probabilities have the juice removed).

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Nevada Democratic Caucus Betting Odds

  • Bernie Sanders: -700, 76.2% implied probability
  • Joe Biden: +1000, 7.9% implied probability
  • Pete Buttigieg: +1200, 6.7% implied probability
  • Elizabeth Warren: +2000, 4.2% implied probability
  • Amy Klobuchar: +3300, 2.5% implied probability
  • Tom Steyer: +3300, 2.5% implied probability
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