The Ohio Senate race appears to be tilted toward Democratic nominee Sherrod Brown across both prediction markets and polls, especially in light of the latest Fox News survey.
However, during the past few days both candidates' odds have slowly converged amid an intensifying ad war and a high-profile visit from Donald Trump, during which the president will hit the GOP’s core agenda.
Before breaking down the polling data and market odds, be sure to use our Polymarket promo code and download the Action Network app to get the best political trading insights.
Fox News Moves Ohio’s Senate Race
In recent days, Fox News released a survey on the Ohio Senate race, and the numbers were clear: Sherrod Brown holds a five-percentage-point lead over Jon Husted, marking one of the strongest results for the Democratic nominee across this election cycle’s polling.
Curiously, in contrast to what that poll indicates, Brown’s contract on Polymarket shed three points, dipping from a 71% implied probability to its current 68%. While his lead remains formidable, that downward movement just one week out from Election Day could point to an exceptionally tight race destined to be decided by undecided voters.
Ohio Senate Polls: Brown Leads in Fox, Cook, Marist and InsiderAdvantage
Most surveys point to a razor-thin contest between the candidates. The latest one, conducted by Suffolk University, found Sherrod Brown ahead by three percentage points, which aligns with previous prediction market odds. At the same time, Marist University showed the same outcome, giving Brown a four-point advantage.
To add a layer of volatility, a separate survey conducted by Echelon Insights showed the contenders locked in a 47% dead heat, with a significant share of voters landing in the “Undecided” option. That marked the first poll to register a tie since ActiVote’s late-September release.
If you’re tracking how the odds have shifted this week, don't forget to visit Prediction Pro and our midterms predictionsfor more political content.
Ohio Senate Odds Today: Brown’s Price After the Ramaswamy Ad Backlash
On the Polymarket’s trading board, Sherrod Brown holds the lead with a 68% implied probability, a figure that has remained relatively steady throughout the month of October, save for the dip his odds took after the release of the Fox News poll.
Traders see Brown maintaining a tangible edge over Republican Jon Husted, whose shares currently trade at a 33% implied odds, marking a notable rebound after falling to an all-time low of 28%.
Overall, while Husted still heavily trails behind Brown, recent market movements seem to be working in Husted's favor as he slowly chips away at his opponent's lead. It remains to be seen whether he has enough time to mount a competitive comeback before the November 3 election.
Ramaswamy’s Ad About Acton’s Mother: What Husted and DeWine Said
Vivek Ramaswamy’s ad featuring Donna Arthur, Dr. Amy Acton’s estranged mother sparked immediate backlash from prominent Ohio Republicans. The $4 million attack ad unleashed a wave of cancellations across venues slated to host Ramaswamy’s campaign events.
Even the Ohio Governor Mike DeWine publicly condemned the spot as "deeply, deeply troubling" and "wrong," directly urging Ramaswamy’s campaign to pull it from the airwaves. DeWine emphasized that family members should remain off limits in political campaigns. Meanwhile, Sen. Jon Husted distanced himself from the tactic, telling reporters, “I would not have run that ad.’’
Trump’s Third Ohio Visit This Month: Chillicothe Rally Details
Today, Donald Trump is making his third campaign stop in Ohio, headlining a rally in Chillicothe to energize rural turnout to back Jon Husted. The event at the Ross County Fairgrounds is designed to maximize GOP margins across southern Ohio’s working-class.
Trump’s speech will most likely center on domestic manufacturing, energy independence, and border enforcement while attacking Jerrod Brown’s voting record. For Husted, the visit provides crucial media coverage and base mobilization as early voting enters its critical final week.
