Updated Democratic Primary Odds: Joe Biden Huge Favorite Following Super Tuesday Win, Bloomberg Drop-Out
Photo credit: MARK RALSTON/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Bloomberg and Joe Biden
In just 48 hours, the entire complexion of the Democratic Primary race changed.
Former Vice President Joe Biden overperformed polling this past Saturday and easily won South Carolina after struggling through the first three states in the race: Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.
That surge apparently pushed out fellow moderates in the race in Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, who dropped out prior to yesterday’s Super Tuesday voting and endorsed Biden in a Texas campaign rally Monday night.
It seemed like those factors would push Super Tuesday into a tight, contested race between Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, but indications are that Biden did incredibly well yesterday. The results haven’t been announced in California (almost assuredly a Bernie win) or Texas (likely Biden) at this point, but Biden is now the clear frontrunner to win the nomination.
European book Betfair has Biden as a -700 favorite (bet $700 to win $100) as of Wednesday morning to be the Democrats’ candidate for president. That gives him a juice-free implied probability of 80.6%.
Sanders is still in second place, but his odds have dropped all the way down to +600, giving him an implied probability of 13.2%. For context, he was around +180 prior to Super Tuesday voting.
Former NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg entered the race late and was making a big play for Super Tuesday, but he dropped out early Wednesday morning after struggling on Super Tuesday. Books apparently think he’ll endorse Biden — which could include a lot of money — as his drop-out moved Biden this morning from -350 to -700.
The final question is whether Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren will stay in the race or drop out and endorse Sanders, consolidating the progressive vote around a single candidate. Indications are that she wants to stay in until the convention, but Biden’s surge might force her hand.
See the full 2020 Democratic primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.
Updated 2020 Democratic Primary Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -700 means that if you bet $700 and Joe Biden wins, you’d profit $100. And +600 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $600.
- Joe Biden: -700, 80.6% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +600, 13.2% implied probability
- Hillary Clinton: +2500, 3.5% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +6600, 1.4% implied probability
- Michelle Obama: +10000, 0.9% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +20000, 0.5% implied probability