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Argentina vs Mexico Odds, Pick, Prediction | World Cup Match Preview

Argentina vs Mexico Odds, Pick, Prediction | World Cup Match Preview article feature image
Credit:

Simon Bruty/Getty. Pictured: Lionel Messi.

  • Argentina face Mexico in a crucial World Cup match.
  • Where is the betting value in the tie?
  • BJ Cunningham explains his perspective that values El Tri.

Argentina vs. Mexico Odds

Saturday, Nov. 26
2 p.m. ET
FS1
Argentina Odds -188
Mexico Odds +550
Draw +300
Over/Under 2.5 (-110 / -110)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (-106 / -125)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.

Argentina look to rebound from falling to Saudi Arabia when they take on Mexico in a crucial match in Group C.

They were the biggest favorite to ever fall at the World Cup after losing 2-1, and that puts them in a must-win scenario here against Mexico where they need three points if they want give themselves an opportunity to get out of the group.

Mexico played one of the most boring matches so far at the World Cup, drawing 0-0 with Poland. They needed a Guillermo Ochoa penalty save to keep the score level.

This is a great opportunity for them because if they can get a result here, it sets up an opportunity where if they beat Saudi Arabia in their final match, they are going to the knockout stage.

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Argentina Coming Off of Historic Loss

Argentina were really unlucky to lose against Saudi Arabia and just got caught on the wrong side of some variance.

Argentina 1-2 Saudi Arabia: The biggest World Cup shock of all time? It's certainly in with a shout…

The last three teams to beat Argentina at the World Cup either won the trophy or reached the final. See you on 18 December, Saudi Arabia!#ARGKSA | #FIFAWorldCup pic.twitter.com/snepr4tVfW

— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) November 22, 2022

Since Saudi Arabia were playing a high defensive line, Argentina became a 4-0-6 shape, which is good to confuse and overpower the back line, but you become reliant on long balls from the back line with no midfielder coming back to receive the ball.

What else is concerning is yes, Lionel Messi and Lautaro Martinez are two of the best attackers in the world, but their midfield pairing of Rodrigo De Paul and Leandro Parades along with their center back pairing of Nicolás Otamendi and Christian Romero is not elite by any stretch of the imagination.

Argentina do a fantastic job at creating numerical overloads when they are in possession, pushing their wing backs high up the pitch and having their midfielders stay compact in the middle so that no matter where the ball is distributed, they have multiple passing options.

With this style comes a lot of patience in the build up play, so it explains why Argentina’s matches throughout World Cup Qualifying and Copa America contained just 0.98 xG per 90 minutes. Nonetheless, coming into the tournament they were also way overdue to concede as they have allowed 11 goals off 22.2 xG since the 2018 World Cup.

Mexico Will Need to Maintain Defensive Class

There is really not much you can take away from Mexico’s match with Poland, as it was very low event and Argentina are going to play a completely different style.

Mexico were solid defensively in that match, as they held Poland to just 0.25 non-penalty xG and five non-penalty shots. The question now is how are they going to fare when they have to play an elite attacking side like Argentina.

The good news is Mexico do have a fantastic defensive midfielder in Edson Alvarez, who is capable of completely controlling a match. He plays for Ajax in the Dutch Eredivise and is in the 98th percentile or above in arial duals won and clearances. He’s also outstanding at controlling the ball and tempo of the match.

Mexico have some talented attacking players that can give Argentina some trouble, especially up the wings. Hirving Lozano is one of the best attackers in Serie A playing for Napoli, putting up a 0.75 xG + xAssist per 90 minute rate this season, along with Wolves striker Raul Jimenez.

They are also a side that will always play with a ton of intensity in terms of their pressing and passion. You are always going to get a full 90 minute effort from the Mexican national team.

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Argentina vs. Mexico Pick

Even though this may seem like a buy low spot in a must-win scenario for Argentina, I still think there are some tactical problems and their midfield really doesn’t have a drastic advantage over Mexico, so I think it’s going to be difficult for them to get the ball to the front line.

I like the value on Mexico to get a result here against an inflated Argentina team.

The Pick: Mexico +1 (-110) 

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