Arsenal vs. Brentford Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview (Saturday, Feb. 11)
Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Oleksandr Zinchenko.
Arsenal vs. Brentford Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-142 / +116)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-140 / +115)|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Arsenal look to rebound from their second loss in the Premier League when they host the red-hot Brentford.
The Gunners suffered a setback in their title challenge last weekend, losing to Everton at Goodison Park last Saturday. It was just the third time that the Gunners have dropped points and they better be careful to not overlook Brentford, which is possible as they have their biggest game of the season against Manchester City on Wednesday.
The Bees are in sublime form at the moment. Their 3-0 win over Southampton marked the ninth-straight match where they have been unbeaten. Their last loss came on October 23rd against Aston Villa, so it’s been over three months since Thomas Frank’s side has suffered a defeat. They were beaten 3-0 by Arsenal at the Brentford Community Stadium in the reverse fixture, so they will be looking for revenge.
Arsenal Could Face New Problem
The Arsenal defense has conceded just 12.53 xG from open play in 20 matches and is only allowing 0.81 npxG per 90 minutes this season. In fact, Arsenal are the No. 1 team in the Premier League in terms of big scoring chances allowed and have allowed just two in their past eight matches.
Arsenal’s attack has also been amazing this season and Thomas Partey has been a big reason why. He is by far the best defensive midfielder in the Premier League and he allows Granit Xhaka to get forward and create overloads in attack, which frees space up for all the other Arsenal attackers.
Martin Ødegaard, Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka are about as dangerous as it gets for a trio of attacking midfielders. The three combine to average 1.66 xG + xA per 90 minutes, and none of the three are above a 0.30 xG or xAssist per 90, which shows how evenly distributed their attack is.
Bukayo Saka for the LEAD!
📺 @nbc and @peacock #ARSMU | #MyPLMorning pic.twitter.com/7EwRAWKLUA
— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) January 22, 2023
However, the problem Arsenal ran into against Sean Dyche’s Everton is a similar problem they are going to run into against Brentford. Typically, Arsenal love to try and play a “square” midfield, inverting Zinchenko to play alongside Partey, which can free up some half space behind the first line of the low block.
However, Everton didn’t press Arsenal and went with a five-man midfield, which didn’t allow Arsenal to create numerical advantages in the middle of the pitch. Brentford are an elite compact defense, so life is going to continue to be difficult for Arsenal’s attack.
Brentford Playing World Class Football
The Bees have been hot offensively since we came back from the World Cup, scoring 12 goals in their last seven matches. But, they have been running pretty well too, as they’ve only created 9.3 xG in those seven matches.
They also haven’t faced a defense like Arsenal’s in a while. The last time they faced the Gunners, the Bees were held to just 0.5 xG, five shots and 14 touches in the penalty area.
The key to Brentford’s success this season has been their defense. More specifically, their ability to defend their penalty area at an elite level. Typically, Thomas Frank’s side will set up in a 3-5-2, which becomes a 5-3-2 out of possession, putting a premium on clogging up the middle of the pitch.
Brentford will allow opponents into their final third, as they’re allowing the second-most final third entries, but only 25.59% of the time do those final entries translate into a box entry, which is the second-best mark in the Premier League.
The Bees are also one of the best teams in the Premier League at taking points off the big six. In six matches versus the big six, Brentford have picked up 11 points and has a +0.4 xGD. They also have notched a road win over Manchester City.
Arsenal vs. Brentford Pick
Brentford have been one of the best defenses outside of the big six this season and are very difficult to breakdown once you enter the final third. Everton gave them the blueprint on how to stifle Arsenal’s offense and they should be able to make life difficult on the Gunners.
The flip side is Brentford’s offense has been running a little too hot at the moment and haven’t ran into a defense that can defend in transition like Arsenal’s.
So, I like the value on the under in this spot.
Pick: Under 2.5 (+115)
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