Bournemouth vs Man City Odds, Predictions, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
Shaun Botterill/Getty. Pictured: Pep Guardiola.
Bournemouth vs Man City Odds
| Bournemouth Odds | +550 |
| Man City Odds | -225 |
| Draw | +425 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -211 / +160 |
Manchester City head on the road for a tough test to take on a resurgent Bournemouth side at the Vitality Stadium.
Bournemouth started the season in dreadful form and were looking at potentially getting relegated, but they have been one of the best teams in the Premier League since losing 6-1 to Manchester City at the Etihad. Andoni Iraola's tactics are really starting to take shape and has a great opportunity here to pull off a big upset.
Manchester City are starting to find the form that won them the Premier League title last year. Their last loss came on December 6th against Aston Villa and since have gone 14 matches unbeaten. With that being said, this is a really tough test and much different Bournemouth than they faced on November 4th, so Manchester City better bring their A-game.
Read on for my Bournemouth vs Man City prediction.
Bournemouth
If there is ever a team that could give Manchester City some problems in transition, Bournemouth are that team.
Brentford had two or three golden breakaways against Manchester City in the first half on Tuesday, but they couldn’t capitalize. Bournemouth have been incredibly clinical in transition and their turnaround started after their 6-1 loss to Manchester City. In that match, the final xG was 1.9 to 0.9. Manchester City took 21 shots for the match and were facing a backup goalkeeper for Bournemouth and took advantage. In fact, they didn’t even create single big scoring chance on those 21 shots.
Since those two met on November 4th, Bournemouth have a +0.87 npxGD per 90 minutes, while Manchester City are at +1.05, so there really hasn’t been that big of a gap between these two teams.
Iraola’s hybrid press has been thriving lately. Since November 11th, Bournemouth have the third-best PPDA in the Premier League at 8.7 and lead the league in goals scored off of high turnovers with seven.
Dominic Solanke has benefited from Iraola’s system because he's a fantastic striker at finding space off the opponent's back line. Solanke is second in the Premier League in non-penalty goals (12) this season and will be a threat in transition against Manchester City.
Man City
This year Manchester City are worse than they were last season, especially out of possession. We’ve seen them get exploited in transition time and time again because their press is not as effective as it once was. Their PPDA has risen from 11.2 to 12.3 and their opponent build up completion percentage allowed has gone from 78.5% to 80.5%. I know that doesn’t sound like a big jump, but it’s a pretty clear sign that Manchester City’s press effectiveness is declining. Because of that, teams have been able to play a lot more long balls up the pitch at a pretty successful rate.
Manchester City are allowing a long ball completion percentage of 52.7%, which is around the Premier League average when their two title challengers Arsenal and Liverpool are only allowing around a 45% completion rate on long balls. So, since Manchester City’s high press isn’t as effective, teams have had more time and space to pick out those long passes and complete them at a high percentage.
Because their press hasn’t been as effective, their defensive numbers have dropped a bit, going from allowing 0.76 npxG per 90 minutes last year to 0.88 this season.
Manchester City are averaging 2.00 expected goals per 90 minutes and Erling Haaland is putting up similar expected goals numbers as he did last year, but there is an aspect of Manchester City that is lacking, they really miss İlkay Gündoğan. His late runs into the box to score goals was what helped City on their 14 match win streak last year. Rodri has filled in this role nicely, but if Rodri is coming and crashing the box, it leaves Manchester City without their best ball stopping midfielder when teams break in transition, which is something Bournemouth can exploit.
Bournemouth vs Man City
Prediction
You are going to hear a lot of pundits tell you that Manchester City are going to walk to the title. I have news for you, it's not going to be as easy as it was last season. Brentford could have very easily gone up 1-0 against them in the first half on Tuesday if they were more clinical with their breakaway opportunities.
Bournemouth are a much better team in transition. Not only do they have more pace, but they have one of the most in form strikers in the Premier League in Dominic Solanke. Manchester City's inability to not only press, but defend in transition at the level they were last year is hurting them and it's the reason why they only have one win against the rest of the big six.
I only have Manchester City projected as a -143 favorite, so I like the value on Bournemouth +1.5 at -129.
Pick: Bournemouth +1.5 (-129 via BetRivers)
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