Bournemouth vs West Ham Odds, Prediction | Premier League Picks

Bournemouth Grinding Out of Relegation Battle

Nearly left for dead as March began, what's been most impressive about the Cherries' resurgence is the opposition it has come against.

Bournemouth have slayed Liverpool, Fulham and Spurs to assemble a stretch of four wins and 12 points earned in their last six league games. That's more than 36% of their total points haul on the season.

The Cherries were active during the winter window, but it's two players who have been here all season who have helped power the attack: Phillip Billing and Dominic Solanke. Each have two goals in that six-match stretch, a third of their combined total of 12 this Premier League campaign.

However, the questions remains are Bournemouth actually playing better or just getting more fortunate? The xG models suggest the latter, with the Cherries posting an expected goals (xG) difference of -0.3 per 90 minutes over their recent strong run, which is more or less in line with their overall league form.

That said, their -22.8 xGD is still well higher than their -28 goal difference, so you could argue they are due for a regression in terms of results. Then again, so is much of the bottom of the table.

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West Ham Under-Performing xG Numbers

The xG models continue to suggest West Ham are the team least deserving of a relegation scrap, and just maybe their quality is showing through of late.

David Moyes' squad is 5-1-3 (W-L-D) in all competitions in their last nine games, although their league record is a more modest 2-1-2 in that stretch. The Hammers will be on less than 72 hours' rest after a 4-1 Leg 2 win over Gent on Thursday night to secure a 5-2 aggregate victory in the Europa Conference quarterfinals.

If nothing else, West Ham are plenty used to that kind of turnaround by now. Across all competitions, they've posted a 5-9-5 record (W-L-D) in games three days after their previous match. That record is 4-8-4 in the Premier League. That's not noticeably different from their overall 8-15-7 EPL record.

One note of caution though: Where the Hammers have failed to live up to their analytical quality is in attack as an away side. They have eight goals against 15.6 xG created during their league travels.

Bournemouth vs West Ham Pick

The xG data suggest the smart wager here is on a Hammers side that is a slight away favorite. In most cases by this point in the season you'd fade the data if the track records gave you good reason to.

But the reason you might not is the Cherries have been the kind of team that has played to the level of their opponents most of the season. They own wins over Aston Villa, Fulham, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur. They also have home defeats to Southampton and Crystal Palace.

There are clearer trends on the total. West Ham Have skewed toward higher-scoring games at home and lower ones away. Bournemouth have the opposite tendencies, making this a game where you'd be expecting two or fewer goals.

But are the relatively expensive -130 odds and implied 56.5% probability worth it? Probably. When you look at games against these teams' colleagues in the bottom nine places in the table, the under has cashed on 8-of-11 occasions. With both teams entering the weekend with a little margin for error, this might be a game where they're both comfortable taking a point.

 Pick: Under 2.5 (-130 via PointsBet)

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