Brentford vs Newcastle Odds, Pick: Trust in These Attacks (April 8)
Justin Setterfield/Getty. Pictured: Callum Wilson.
Brentford vs Newcastle Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+106 / -128)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-126 / -102)|
|Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Brentford host Newcastle at the Brentford Community Stadium on Saturday in an important match in the race for European football.
The Bees lost 1-0 to Manchester United at Old Trafford on Wednesday, which was a setback in their quest for the top six. Brentford play a style different than that of most of the top teams relying on solid defensive structure, counterattacks and being incredibly efficient on set pieces. Thomas Frank’s side has shown that you don’t need to hold a lot of possession to be effective at the highest level.
Newcastle are coming into this match in red hot form after putting five past West Ham on Wednesday for their fourth straight win. The Magpies are now up to third place in the Premier League table and look like a safe bet at the moment to finish inside the top four. However, a loss here could see them drop out of the top four once again.
Brentford Play With Efficiency
The Bees have shown all of us that possession doesn’t matter if you can’t create high quality chances. In only one of their 10 wins in the Premier League this season have they held more than 50% possession. That is by design because Thomas Frank wants his side to be incredibly difficult to break down by playing five at the back out of possession and not allowing teams to get into the box at a high rate.
When an opponent enters Brentford’s final third, they’re only turning that final third entry into a box entry 26.96% of the time, which is the third best mark in the Premier League. However, they’re allowing the second-most shots per 90 minutes, which does tend to lead to some high event style matches.
The Bees’ matches in the Premier League this season are averaging 2.76 xG per 90 minutes. Brentford may concede a lot of possession, but they’re so good at taking advantage of their counterattacking opportunities, as they’ve created the fifth-most big scoring chances while taking the third-fewest shot per 90 minutes.
Brentford are also completing the third most crosses into the penalty area, are sixth in aerial duals won % and are the most efficient set piece team in the Premier League.
Newcastle Succeeding With Direct Style
Although these are two sides that tend to set up more defensive than other teams, that doesn’t mean we’re going to see a low-event type match.
The three meetings between these two clubs over the past two seasons have been completely bonkers. At St. James’ Park last season, it was a thrilling 3-3 draw, then Newcastle beat Brentford 4-1 on the road and this season Newcastle destroyed the Bees 5-1 at home.
Both of these sides set to play a very direct style, which is always a benefit for each offense but not really for the opposing defense. Typically, when low block direct counterattacking teams face off against each other, both offenses are not used to having a lot of possession and both defenses are set up to defend against slow-paced possession teams. So, what usually ends up happening is it creates an end to end type match.
Newcastle are on of the best pressing teams in the Premier League, as they have forced the most high turnovers this season. That has also led them to having a 39.59% final third to penalty box entry conversion rate, which is the best mark in the Premier League.
On top of that, their big money signing Alexander Isak is really starting to find his form. He’s played eight full 90s and already has scored seven goals and created 6.0 xG.
Brentford vs Newcastle Pick
Just because we have two teams that like to play a more direct style, that doesn’t automatically mean it’s going to be a low-event type match. History has shown that when these two teams get together, chaos ensues.
Brentford put such a premium on their counterattacking opportunities that when they do win the ball – usually in their own third of the pitch – they commit a ton of players forward on the counter to overwhelm the opposing defense in transition, which is why they’re top five in the Premier League in big scoring chances.
That style of play also leaves them really exposed if they lose the ball high, which has happened far too often with Brentford being 15th in offensive PPDA. Newcastle are the best team in the Premier League at winning the ball high up the pitch, so I think this is going to create a chaotic match between these two sides.
Pick: Over 2.5 (+106)
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