Bundesliga Betting Picks: Our Favorite Bets for Bayern Munich at Dortmund, Monchengladbach vs. Werder Bremen
A. Hassenstein/Getty Images for FC Bayern. Pictured: Benjamin Pavard
- There are four Bundesliga matches on Tuesday afternoon, including Der Klassiker between Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund.
- Check out below for our favorite bets and picks for Bayern vs. Dortmund and Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Werder Bremen.
Tuesday’s four-match Bundesliga slate gets started at 12:30 p.m. ET with an a game that some may call the Super Bowl of the Quarantine. Germany’s two footballing powerhouses, Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, will duke it out in Der Klassiker and the stakes are quite high.
Only four points separate first-place Bayern Munich, the seven-time defending champions, from second-place Dortmund, the last team other than Die Roten to lift the Salatschüssel.
Check out below for our favorite bets for Tuesday, including how we’re betting Der Klassiker:
Bayern Munich at Borussia Dortmund Betting Odds
|Bayern Munich Odds||-115
|Time||12:30 p.m. ET|
Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund
12:30 p.m. ET, FS1
While Bayern leads the league at +1.5 expected goals (xG) per 90, Dortmund is fourth at +0.56. Even though both table toppers have performed about as expected defensively, BVB’s historic overperformance offensively has inflated both their lines and goal tallies for most of the last two months.
Despite just 47.7 xGF this season, they’ve piled up 74 goals, which has meant they’ve overperformed their expected points by about seven this year (57 actual, 50.48 expected).
Expected goals is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Dortmund’s defense has kept consecutive clean sheets since the return to play, but it faced off against two very weak attacks in Schalke and Wolfsburg. And while its offense scored six goals in two matches, they were again benefiting from great finishing, as xG indicated they really only generated about 2.2 goals worth of attacking chances.
Bayern put any concerns about its sharpness to rest after thrashing Frankfurt 5-2 on Saturday, conceding twice on corners but dominating the rest of the run of play. With Dortmund center back Mats Hummels in doubt for Der Klassiker, Dortmund’s defense will face one of its toughest tests of the season.
On the pitch, Bayern have completely dominated this rivalry of late. Each of the last two years, when Dortmund and Bayern met in the spring with the title still in doubt, Bayern romped its Klassiker rival. In March 2018, Bayern rolled 6-0, and in April 2019, the defending champions won 5-0. When the teams played earlier this season at Allianz Arena in Munich, Bayern won 4-0.
There may not be a single Dortmund player who would make it into the Bayern starting XI if the two teams were combined. Dortmund may be the trendy upset pick playing at home, but thus far, the home-field advantage appears to be severely limited.
While home teams won 43.3% of Bundesliga matches before the layoff this season, that number has dipped to 16.7% in the 18 matches since its return. It’s a small sample size, but it matches the expectation thus far. I’m getting a far superior Bayern team against an overvalued Dortmund side who won’t have crowd support in its biggest match of the season.
I’ll bet Bayern to win the match, and also sprinkle a little on them to win by more than one goal by taking Bayern -1 on the 3-way spread at +210 on FanDuel. It’s the same as betting Bayern -1.5 in traditional lines.
The Bet(s): Bayern -115, Bayern -1 (+210)
Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund
12:30 p.m. ET, FS1
Der Klassiker is a classic betting matchup between a trendy underdog, barking in off two impressive wins, and an elite team that is being overlooked by bettors who are looking to have a flutter on the adorable dog chasing after the runaway train that is Bayern Munich.
I admit I was skeptical of Bayern after the hiatus, questioning if the significant interruption would have an adverse effect on the seven-time defending champions. A less-than-convincing win over Union Berlin in their first match back didn’t exactly make me a believer, but Bayern looked a dominant force against Frankfurt on Saturday.
Now my skepticism lives with Borussia Dortmund. BVB continues to run hot, consistently posting crooked scorelines despite the expected goals models suggesting both matches should have been much closer. It’s unfair to call Dortmund’s wins lucky, but they can certainly be labeled flattering.
BVB will now make a huge jump in class, needing three points against a Bavarian Dynasty.
Even though their offense gets most of the praise, which makes sense since Die Roten lead the Bundesliga in goals and xGF, Bayern’s defense grades out as one of the best units in the league, trailing only RB Leipzig in goals against and ranking third in xGA.
Borussia Dortmund is still one of the best teams in the Bundesliga and their first two results after the break leap off the page, but their statistical profile paints them as a clear second choice against Bayern Munich. You don’t normally get discounts like this on one of the best teams in the world.
I think a bet on Bayern Munich at -125 or better makes a fine wager and I’d also suggest going price-hunting for this match. Perhaps a shot on Bayern -1.5 (+205, DraftKings) floats your boat, but I’m going to back Bayern to pitch a shutout against an overrated offense at 3-1 odds.
The Bet(s): Bayern Munich -115; Dortmund To Score No Goals +300
Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Werder Bremen Odds
|Werder Bremen Odds||+360
|Time||2:30 p.m. ET|
Fifth-place Gladbach heads to relegation foe Werder Bremen on Tuesday afternoon. Werder Bremen come into Tuesday’s tilt off a win at Freiburg on Saturday, while Gladbach come in after a loss to fellow top-of-the-table side Bayer Leverkusen.
Werder Bremen have been terrible so far this Bundesliga campaign and relegation looks more than likely for Die Werderaner. At home this season Werder Bremen has earned 5 points in 12 matches, which is the worst record in the Bundesliga, and it’s been six months since they’ve earned a point at the Weserstadion. Werder’s xG differential at home is only -3.12, so they’ve been a bit unlucky, but it’s still a dire picture for the underdogs on Tuesday.
Borussia Monchengladbach fell out of the top four last weekend after a disappointing loss to Bayer Leverkusen, but Gladbach is unbeaten in their last four road games (three wins, one draw). Those results aren’t out of character for Die Fohlen, who boast a +7.26 expected goal differential (xGD) on the road this season and are 8-0-0 with a +11.32 xGD against the five worst teams in the Bundesliga table.
Motivation shouldn’t be an issue, either, as Gladbach absolutely needs all three points to keep pace with the top four and secure a Champions League spot for next season.
My model has the expected goals for this match as:
- Werder Bremen: 1.15 xG
- Borussia Monchengladbach: 2.32 xG
I am backing Gladbach to win this match in a blow out at the Weserstadion. Since I am getting plus odds on Gladbach -1 (+125) on DraftKings, I think there is good value in taking the spread in this match.
The Bet: Borussia Monchengladbach -1 (+125)