Saturday Bundesliga Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund (Nov. 7)
Federico Gambarini/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Robert Lewandowski (left) and Mats Hummels (right).
- One of European soccer's biggest rivalry games takes place on Saturday in the Bundesliga.
- Despite being on the road, Bayern Munich are odds-on favorites to beat Borussia Dortmund in the latest installment of Der Klassiker.
- Matthew Trebby previews the match and makes a case for backing the Bavarians to come out on top.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich Odds
|Borussia Dortmund Odds||+245 [BET NOW]|
|Bayern Munich Odds||-106 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+300 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+100/-122) [BET NOW]|
|Time||Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
It’s time for the first edition of Der Klassiker in the Bundesliga this season. League leaders Bayern Munich make their way north to take on second-place Borussia Dortmund.
Both teams enter this fixture on a sizzling run of form. Dortmund have won six of their last seven games, while Bayern have won nine straight in all competitions.
The two sides actually met earlier this season in the German Super Cup, as a result of Bayern winning the Bundesliga and DFB Pokal last season and Dortmund finishing as the league runners-up. Back on Sept. 30, the Bavarians came out on top, 3-2, in a game that saw them blow a 2-0 lead before Joshua Kimmich scored the winner in the 82nd minute for Bayern.
The teams will look different on Saturday than the lineups that were rolled out just over five weeks ago, but the quality remains the same. The eyes of world soccer will be on the Signal-Iduna Park for this matchup of German giants.
While the opposition has not been of the highest quality, Dortmund enters this game having kept six clean sheets in their last seven games. The Black and Yellow’s 3-1 defeat away to Lazio in the Champions League is their only defensive blemish during that run.
A concern for manager Lucien Favre will be the status of defensive star Mats Hummels, who missed Dortmund’s Champions League win on Wednesday due to injury. Hummels trained by himself on Thursday, and Favre said earlier in the week that he is hopeful the veteran will be fit for this match.
Hummels and Manuel Akanji have created one of the best defensive duos in Europe thus far this season. Dortmund leads the Bundesliga in expected goals allowed (xGA) and non-penalty expected goals allowed (NPxGA) at 3.77.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Going forward, Dortmund’s attack is built around 20-year-old phenom Erling Haaland, who has nine goals this season, five of which have been in the Bundesliga. There will be difficult decisions to make around Haaland, although Dortmund has rolled with the trio of Marco Reus, Gio Reyna and Jadon Sancho around him. It’s also possible Dortmund plays with a third center back against a team like Bayern.
Simply stated, Bayern Munich are the best team in the world right now.
The reigning champions of Europe have not missed a beat during this new campaign. Manager Hansi Flick’s side remains a devastating force going forward. During their nine-match unbeaten run, Bayern have scored 33 goals (3.66 per game).
They have the best striker in the world in Robert Lewandowski and actually improved upon their already incredible wide options by signing Leroy Sane from Manchester City.
The only potential question mark surrounding Bayern is their defense, which has allowed nine goals in six Bundesliga games and gave up two on Tuesday in the Champions League against RB Salzburg.
Due to fixture congestion, no pairing has been able to get its feet wet together. Assuming fitness is no issue, I’d expect David Alaba and Jerome Boateng are paired together against Dortmund, as that is the duo that led Dortmund to the Champions League title and featured down the stretch in the Bundesliga last season.
Borussia Dortmund-Bayern Munich Pick
The current odds at DraftKings indicate that they are expecting goals to be scored in this game. The current total is 3.5, which is reasonable given the attacking power that each side possesses.
I’d play the under given the magnitude of the game and quality in each team’s defense, especially given Dortmund’s current form at the back. (I know Bayern is miles better than any team Dortmund have played of late, but it’s still worth taking into account.)
As good as I think Dortmund’s odds are here, they have beaten Bayern just once in the two sides’ last seven meetings. It’s quite possible that Dortmund’s defensive stability could be the difference to finally get all three points, but I can’t back them, even at home.
At this point in the season and given Bayern’s ability to win big matches, it’s hard to bet against them. The moneyline for the Bavarians is currently -121 on DraftKings, which is probably as low as you’ll see it for them for any match until we are deep into the knockout stages of the Champions League.
Parlay the Bayern moneyline with under 3.5 goals, and you’re at +265 on DraftKings. To get value in betting on Flick’s side, this is the best way to do it.
The PICK: Parlay: Bayern Munich moneyline (-121) | Under 3.5 goals (-109)