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European Soccer Forecast: Projected Odds, Totals for Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A and More (Nov. 6-Nov. 8)

Credit:

Salih Zeki Fazlioglu/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Rashford of Manchester United.

After an incredibly busy European schedule we’ve reach the final weekend before the international break. Here’s some of what we saw last weekend:

  • Manchester City, Tottenham, Liverpool, and Chelsea all took care of business as big favorites.
  • Arsenal got their first away win over the “Top 6” since 2015 beating Manchester United 1-0.
  • Gladbach held on for 1-0 win over title challengers RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga.
  • Barcelona was only able muster a draw at Alaves, dropping them to 12th place in the La Liga Table.
  • Cristiano made his return to the pitch coming on as a sub and bagging two goals against Spezia in a 4-1 Juventus win.
  • Lazio scored two stoppage time goals to comeback and win 4-3 at Torino.
  • Sassuolo pulled off another upset beating Napoli 2-0 on the road, which now puts them in second place in Serie A.

This weekend’s slate features some huge matches in the Premier League, Bundesliga, and Serie A, but many teams who participated in Champions League and Europa League may be managing their squads this weekend. Therefore, it may be a good idea to wait until starting lineups come out before heading to the window.

You can use these projections to identify early betting value on the opening lines, and follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make throughout the week.

If you’d like to read more about how I determine my projected lines and totals using an expected goals model, you can read about it here.

Note: These projections do not take into account injuries. The injury news highlighted below is for players that regularly would start in each team’s starting XI. 

Premier League

Premier League Notes:

    • Everton vs. Manchester United: Everton looks to rebound and hold their spot in the top four after a bad loss on the road at Newcastle over the weekend. Manchester United on the other hand is in crisis mode when it comes to the Premier League. The Red Devils are in 15th place and will be playing their seventh match in the last 21 days. Everton only has one win in their last 10 meetings with Manchester United.
    • Manchester City vs. Liverpool: The Cityzens look to make up the current five points gap between them and the Reds at home. Manchester City has won 11 of their past 13 home matches in the Premier League. Liverpool has won only three of their past nine matches on the road.

Premier League Injury News: 

      • Arsenal: David Luiz has been ruled out against Aston Villa.
      • Aston Villa: Bertrand Traore (RW) has ben ruled out against Arsenal.
      • Burnley: Jack Cork (CM) and Ben Mee (CB) are both doubtful to play against Chelsea.
      • Brighton: Lewis Dunk (CB) is out against Burnley.
      • Chelsea: Christian Pulisic (RW) is questionable to play against Sheffield United.
      • Crystal Palace: Lucas Milivojevic (CM) and Joel Ward (LB) are all out against Leeds.
      • Everton: Richarlison (LW) and Seamus Coleman (RB) are both out and James Rodriguez (CAM) is questionable to face Manchester United.
      • Leicester: Timothy Castagne (RB), Wilfred Ndidi (CM), Caglar Soyuncu (CB), and Daniel Armartey (CM) are all out and Johnny Evans (CB) is questionable to play against Wolves.
      • Liverpool: Virgil Van Dijk (CB) is out and Thiago (CM) is questionable to face Manchester City.
      • Manchester United: Anthony Martial (ST) is out against Everton.
      • Manchester City: Benjamin Mendy (LB) and Sergio Aguero (ST) are all out against Liverpool.
      • Newcastle: Jonjo Shelvey (CM), Matt Ritchie (RM), and Dwight Gayle (ST) are all out against Southampton.
      • Sheffield United: Lys Mousset (ST), John Fleck (CM), Jack O’Connell (CB) are all out against Chelsea.
      • Southampton: Danny Ings (ST) is doubtful to face Newcastle.

Bundesliga

Bundesliga Notes:

      • Dortmund vs Bayern Munich: The rivalry gets renewed in Dortmund on Saturday for the 128th iteration of Der Klassiker. Bayern Munich and Dortmund are tied on points at the top of the table with Bayern holding the edge due to goal differential. Bayern Munich has six of the last seven meeting between these two clubs.
      • Leverkusen vs. Gladbach: This will be a battle for fourth place in the Bundesliga table. Leverkusen is one point ahead of Gladbach, who trashed Shakhtar Donetsk on Wednesday 6-0 in the Champions League. Leverkusen is unbeaten to start the Bundesliga campaign and is on a three match winning streak.

Bundesliga Injury News: 

      • Bayern Munich: Alphonso Davies (RB) is out for four to six months.
      • Leverkusen: Charles Aranguiz (CM) and Patrik Schick (ST) is questionable to face Freiburg.
      • Dortmund: Mats Hummels (CB) and Emre Can (CM) are both questionable to face Bayern Munich.
      • Gladbach: Denis Zakaria (CDM) is questionable to face Leverkusen with a knee injury.
      • Frankfurt: Filip Kostic (LM) is out with a knee injury against Bayern Munich.
      • Freiburg: Janik Haberer (CM) is out against RB Leipzig with an ankle injury.
      • Hertha Berlin: Jordan Torunaigha (CB) is questionable against Augsburg.
      • Hoffenheim: Andrej Kramaric (ST), Paval Kaderbek (RB), and Benjamin Hubner (CB) are all questionable to face Wolfsburg.
      • Koln: Jonas Hector (CM) and Florian Kainz (RM) are out against Werder Bremen
      • RB Leipzig: Nordi Mukiele (RM), Tyler Adams (CM), and Lukas Klostermann (CB) are all out against Freiburg.
      • Schalke 04: Suat Serder (CM) are is questionable to face Vfb Stuttgart.
      • Werder Bremen: Davie Selke (ST) is out against Koln.
      • Wolfsburg: Maximilian Arnold (CAM) is questionable and Paulo Otavio (LB) is out versus Hertha Berlin.

Serie A

Serie A Notes: 

      • Atalanta vs. Inter: An early battle between two of the top four teams in Serie A last season. Both clubs suffered losses in the Champions League during the week including Atalanta getting blowing 5-0 at home by Liverpool. Inter beat Atalanta on the road 2-0 on the final day of last season to secure second place in the table.
      • Lazio vs. Juventus: Lazio has fallen back from the pack in Serie A as they are currently in 10th place with a -2 goal differential. Juventus finally got Ronaldo back in the lineup and on the scoresheet twice in their last match against Spezia. These two clubs split both meetings last season, with Lazio winning 3-1 at home.

Serie A Injury News

      • Atalanta: Robin Gosens (LB) and Marten De Room (CM) are both questionable to face Inter.
      • Bologna: Andrea Poli (CM) and Gary Medel (CM) are all out against Cagliari.
      • Inter: Romelu Lukaku (ST) and Stefano Sensi (CB) are questionable to face Atalanta.
      • Juventus: Matthijs de Ligt (CB) and and Alex Sandro (LB) are questionable to face Napoli.
      • Lazio: Luis Alberto (CM) and Manuel Lazzari (RM) are questionable to face Juventus due to positive COVID tests.
      • Sampdoria: Maolo Gabbiadini is questionable to face Cagliari.

La Liga

La Liga Notes: 

      • Atletico Madrid vs. Cadiz: This is an unexpected top five battle in La Liga. Cadiz is shockingly in fifth place and has pulled off four straight upset wins on the road, including a 1-0 at Real Madrid. Atletico Madrid will try and spoil the party as they are unbeaten in their last 14 La Liga matches.
      • Valencia vs. Real Madrid: Real Madrid looks to keep their good run of form going and take over the top spot in La Liga on Sunday. Valencia has fallen on hard times and has lost three of their last four matches. Real Madrid has won seven of their last nine matches

La Liga Injuries: 

      • Atletico Madrid: Yannick Carrasco (RW) and Diego Costa (ST) are questionable to face Cadiz.
      • Barcelona: Philippe Coutinho (CAM) is questionable to play against Real Betis.
      • Celta Vigo: Hugo Mallo is questionable to play versus Elche.
      • Granada: Roberto Soldado is questionable to play versus Real Sociedad due to COVID related issues.
      • Real Madrid: Dani Carvajal (RB) is out against Valencia.
      • Villarreal: Francis Coquelin (CM), Daniel Parejo (CM), and Alberto Moreno (LB) are all doubtful to face Real Valladolid.

Ligue 1

Ligue 1 Notes:

      • PSG vs. Reims: PSG looks to make eight wins in a row in Ligue 1. They’ve been on a path of destruction in their last seven matches outscoring their opponents 23 to 1. However, they will have to do it without the services of Kylian Mbappe, Neymar, and Marco Icardi. Rennes has only lost one of their first nine matches in Ligue 1 and is sitting comfortably in third place. They’ve had PSG’s number over the past few years as they’ve beaten the French champions twice in the last four meetings between the two clubs.
      • Lyon vs. Saint Etienne: Saint Etienne is in a horrible run of form, losing their last five matches in Ligue 1 and have been outscored 11 to 1. Lyon has also been struggling, as they’ve only been able to win two of their first nine matches.

Ligue 1 Injuries:

    • Angers: Pierrick Capelle is questionable to play against Nimes.
    • Dijon: Yassine Benzia (ST) is out versus Lorient.
    • Lens: Jose Fonte (CB) is questionable to play against Brest.
    • Lyon: Jason Denayer (CB) is questionable to play against Saint Etienne.
    • Metz: Vincent Pajot (CM) and John Boye (CB) are questionable to play against Dijon.
    • Monaco: Aleksandr Golovin (CAM) and Fode Ballo (LB) are questionable to play against Nice.
    • Nantes: Four player have tested positive for COVID and are questionable to play against Lorient.
    • Nimes: Zinadine Ferhat (RM) and Sidy Sarr (CM) are all questionable to play against Angers.
    • PSG: Neymar (CF), Kylian Mbappe (ST), Mauro Icardi (ST), Juan Bernat (LB), Marco Verratti (CM), Julian Draxler (CAM), and Danilo Pereira (CM) are out against Rennes.
    • Rennes: Eduardo Camavinga (CM) is out against PSG.
    • Saint Etienne: Harold Moukoudi (CB), Gabriel Silva (LB), and Mathieu Debuchy (RB) is out against Lyon.
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